T-Mobile's Q4 goal for Google G1 phone: 500,000 sold

According to Taiwan's CENS website, T-Mobile USA will sell half a million of the Google, Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) G1 smartphone built by Taiwan's own HTC and sold exclusively (so far) by T-Mobile USA. Although that's not up to par with announced Apple, Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) iPhone 3G sales, it's no slouch expectation either.

When the G1 phone is released for sale on October 22, that leaves just over two months for that projected sales figure to be hit. Although the unit will cost a relatively paltry $179 with a two-year contract, can T-Mobile USA really hit that sales number? I have severe doubts, although T-Mobile USA will easily be able to start competing with established players like Apple in 2009.

Although Apple has an entire year headstart over rivals like the G1 and the Samsung Instinct, there are many customers who want the novelty of a touchscreen smartphone but don't want to be locked down into the Apple ecosystem -- even though it works very well and would serve most customers 100% perfectly.

But then again, Apple's first-mover advantage and its incredibly powerful marketing muscle may just keep it floating above the likes of the Google-powered G1 for quite some time. Google's efforts with the G1 could make it a second-tier player here while Apple dominates. That is, unless, T-Mobile USA starts off quick with half a million in unit sales this holiday season and never looks back. What is your projection?