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Comfort Zone Investing: Don't call this a bailout

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Ted Allrich is the founder of The Online Investor and author of the book: Comfort Zone Investing: Build Wealth and Sleep Well at Night. In this weekly column, he'll offer advice to investors who are just getting started.

The bill to buy assets from banks and other institutions, just passed by the House and the Senate, is not a bailout for them. Now we can look forward to some liquidity flowing into the markets. And here are the benefits of the bill:

First, it doesn't simply throw money at a huge problem, and it certainly doesn't buy pools of mortgages or securities at values that are above market, at least it's not supposed to. What it does do is give the Treasury the authority, limited at first, to buy certain types of securities with stipulations attached. The first one is that the assets are purchased by negotiation and at prices determined by the buyer, not the seller. If the government uses the best minds from the mortgage markets, especially in the fixed income and mortgage-backed securities fields, there will be professional valuations done on each purchase.

Second, no money is being handed to an institution to simply continue business as usual, and most significantly, to fund extraordinary pay for senior management. Any money received by an institution will be for a specific asset that the government will then own. There is no attempt to prop up a failing bank or savings and loan by handing a check to management. For every dollar used in the project, an asset is purchased, an asset, if bought correctly, has the potential to pay off and make money for the government (hence, us, the taxpayers).

The math works like this: if the government can buy an asset at 50 cents on the dollar and some of the those assets pay off on schedule, there's 50 cents made on the repayment of the principal, plus all the interest paid on the loan. That's very real profit and very possible, certainly not on all loans, but on some of them. Those profits can be used to offset the losses the new owners will definitely suffer from the bad loans that won't pay off. In those cases, both the principal and interest will be lost. Again, if these mortgages and pools are bought correctly, there's a good chance that a some money will be made because while there will be losses, if the price is right, enough of the good loans will make up for losses and then some.

This is not some hopeful, wishful thinking. It's how the program will work, if the right people are used to buy the assets. They have to be well qualified, professional mortgage investors with a straight moral compass. There are plenty of them around Wall Street now as fixed income departments have shrunk rapidly. Some of them helped create these toxic pools, and one can argue that they would know these assets better than anyone. The other side of the argument is that they created them so how smart would it be to let the foxes guard the hen house. In any case, there are plenty of good, smart people available to help the government do this right.

Don't be confused. This bill passed to help the credit markets flow again. They're frozen. While the Fed and Treasury have other ways to create liquidity, this is the most direct, long lasting benefit that can help fix the crisis. It's not the total answer, only part of it. But it's a big part. And it's not a bailout.


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Last updated: November 24, 2009: 08:14 AM

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