I think IBM (NYSE: IBM), whose colleagues include Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) and Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ), is a great long-term idea. Unfortunately, it might be a bad short-term idea. According to news from earlier in the week, some analysts are speculating that Big Blue may miss earnings expectations for the third quarter.

The negative catalyst? You guessed it. The terrible economic calamity that is tearing down Wall Street institutions is threatening the iconic technology concern. Not even the Cloverfield monster could do as much damage to Wall Street as what has been done by those mutant-mortgage investment vehicles. Not even close. And the theory now is that IBM may become the victim of its exposure to both customers in the financial sector and to the financing it extends.

However, if you read a rebuttal by my colleague Douglas A, McIntyre, you'll see that he doesn't buy that IBM is going to miss come the next report. He brings up some good points. In fact, he brings up probably the best point there is: IBM hasn't warned yet, and if it needed to, it would have. So the stock sold off during the week in part because of all this debate about Q3. It begs the question: Does this sell-off make IBM a buy?

I'm afraid not. You see, whether IBM misses, meets, or beats, I'm sure you've noticed that the equities market is bobbing up and down in stormy seas, and the only islands of safety have been the short-selling shores. It doesn't take a genius to see that IBM is most likely headed lower. At the very least, it should revisit its 52-week low. And, no, I wouldn't be a buyer even at that level. Like I mentioned at the beginning, IBM is an awesome company and a spectacular long-term holding for a rationally designed investment portfolio. And, sure, if you want to buy now, you can, so long as you understand that the share price is probably going lower from here and you intend to hold for a very lengthy period of time. But if you want to get even better prices on stocks, I think they're coming.

I really can't say if IBM is going to miss, I'm a bit undecided on that count. However, I will say unequivocally that now is not the time to buy the stock. Look at what's happening to Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL). The selling may have been overdone in that one, but do you think the market's current psychotic mind-set cares? No. So it would be no surprise to me at all if the Norman-Bates-like sellers out there widen the slit in IBM's throat just a little bit more so a higher quantity of blood can trickle out. Not a pleasant metaphor, perhaps, but right now, nothing is too pleasant, is it?

Disclosure: I don't own any company mentioned; positions can change at any time.