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Can Citi stop Wells Fargo's bid for Wachovia?

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Citigroup (NYSE: C) looks like it's trying to get a breakup fee in exchange for giving up on its deal for Wachovia (NYSE: WB). Citi persuaded a New York judge to extend an exclusivity agreement between Citi and Wachovia -- which prohibited Wachovia from talking to other suitors -- through at least October 10th when the parties are scheduled to meet with the judge. Citi can either offer a higher price than its rival, Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC), or it can negotiate a breakup fee to soothe its hurt feelings.

As a reminder, Citi thought it had a deal last Thursday but on Friday that deal evaporated. Citi's deal for Wachovia's banking operations was for $1 a share, or $2.2 billion, and it left Wachovia's brokerage business as a "stub." On Friday, Wells offered much more -- $7 a share, or $15 billion -- for all of Wachovia's operations. Not only that, but the Wells deal was less risky to the FDIC.

That's because the Citi deal required it to take the first $42 billion in Wachovia losses from Wachovia's option ARM mortgages. The FDIC would take the rest of the losses in exchange for Citi preferred stock and warrants worth about $12 billion. By contrast, the Wells deal -- paid for by issuing $20 billion worth of shares -- would leave the FDIC unscathed.

Citi -- whose stock lost 18% of its value on Friday -- is seeking $60 billion in damages from Wells. I would not be surprised if Citi received less than that in a settlement. But I would be rather shocked if Citi -- which did not have a formal merger agreement with Wachovia -- comes back with a bid that offers more to Wachovia shareholders and to the FDIC than the Wells proposal.

Update. DealBook reports that Citi and Wachovia are in the midst of legal skirmishes which further complicate matters. A New York appelate judge threw out the original ruling of a lower court which extended Citi's exclusivity agreement until at least Friday because that judge issued his ruling while he was out of New York state. Meanwhile Citi and Wachovia are battling over whether the $810 billion bailout bill contains a provision which influences the negotiations.

Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter. He owns Citigroup and Wells Fargo stock and has no financial interest in the other securities mentioned.

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Last updated: November 25, 2009: 06:39 AM

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