One of the most basic precepts of the U.S. economy is that Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth depends on the consumer -- some 70% of GDP growth, in particular. The U.S. has created two inter-related industry clusters to assure that consumer spending keeps growing. While one continues in full force, the other is failing fast. This is causing consumers to put their spending into reverse, creating an economy-wide recession diet on steroids.
What are these two inter-related industry clusters? The Celebrity Industrial Complex (CIC) assures that we see images of the wealthiest and most celebrated sliver of society -- creating a desire to close the gap between us and them. And the Borrowing Industrial Complex (BIC) provides the cash we otherwise could not afford to pay for the goods and services that never quite close that gap. The CIC is still going strong, but with incomes down since 2000, household wealth slashed by $6 trillion, and banks scrambling for capital, the BIC is in cardiac arrest.
Consumers have decided to ignore the psychological pull of the CIC and use whatever money they still have to keep their families alive. While official government statistics don't show this -- perhaps they will when it releases third quarter reports -- consumers are cutting back. Gil Colon, sales manager at Villa Reale, a Las Vegas art and furniture store puts it well: "People have lost their confidence. They have no buying power. They are losing their retirements, their vacation funds, and they are scared to commit to buying anything," according to The New York Times.
Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter.











Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
10-06-2008 @ 10:07AM
william lindblad said...
CIC have anything to do with the CDC?
Do we really need to put new names on the old? Wealth is one thing and celebrity status quite another. During the 30's the stars of Hollywood were all the news as people needed this diversion. On the other hand Doris Duke came to town in her big limo and got stoned - like in having rocks thrown at you.
How about putting some time in on your buddies on the House Finance Committee?
Today they are holding hearings and have invited Fuld from Lehmans. I would like to see Barney bring in Lockhart from the OFHEO. Keep in mind that the last letter is "O", for OVERSIGHT! Considering that this is the agency that was over Fannie and Freddie and their CEO's have gotten the axe, why does this guy have a halo?