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Recession diet goes into overdrive

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One of the most basic precepts of the U.S. economy is that Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth depends on the consumer -- some 70% of GDP growth, in particular. The U.S. has created two inter-related industry clusters to assure that consumer spending keeps growing. While one continues in full force, the other is failing fast. This is causing consumers to put their spending into reverse, creating an economy-wide recession diet on steroids.

What are these two inter-related industry clusters? The Celebrity Industrial Complex (CIC) assures that we see images of the wealthiest and most celebrated sliver of society -- creating a desire to close the gap between us and them. And the Borrowing Industrial Complex (BIC) provides the cash we otherwise could not afford to pay for the goods and services that never quite close that gap. The CIC is still going strong, but with incomes down since 2000, household wealth slashed by $6 trillion, and banks scrambling for capital, the BIC is in cardiac arrest.

Consumers have decided to ignore the psychological pull of the CIC and use whatever money they still have to keep their families alive. While official government statistics don't show this -- perhaps they will when it releases third quarter reports -- consumers are cutting back. Gil Colon, sales manager at Villa Reale, a Las Vegas art and furniture store puts it well: "People have lost their confidence. They have no buying power. They are losing their retirements, their vacation funds, and they are scared to commit to buying anything," according to The New York Times.

If consumer spending declines as much as these words imply, it is hard to believe that GDP grew in the third quarter. It also makes the $110 billion in stimulus checks sent out earlier this year look quaintly inadequate. No doubt whoever wins the election in November will face the worst economic headwinds since 1930.

Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter.

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Last updated: November 11, 2009: 09:48 AM

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