Serious Money: Up stocks on bad day -- AAPL, EWBC, IRBT & MET

So, Apple had a good day today, it's at $98.14 per share, that's about $20 BELOW the amount I predicted it would be by the end of the year, a prediction that you thought was too pessimistic, and the fan boys thought was outrageous, I would suspect. Well, read it and weep fan boys.

Mr. Noitall, without the macro economic turmoil Apple would be at $220 easy. It has nothing to do with the fundamentals of the company. Back in July it traded 68 million shares at $148. Anyway, looks like we get to ride the train again and maybe twice in one year. I wonder why Doug and Dr. Pete didn't write about the 10 million + IPhones?

Beltway Greg

Mr. n, You are right, to a degree and you will make a great curmudgeon.

Give consideration to this thought.

When Beltway Greg said that AAPL would be 200 at the end of 2007, he was right. And if he followed your guidance he would have not only been right but sold it for a good profit.

Now consider that I was on the money two months ago pegging it at 155 to 160. And I too would have been not only right but if I owned it and sold it I would have done well too.

Now in your case you would have had to pick a time to short the stock and only would have been right in the last 60 days of the last 600 days. In other words you have only been right 10% of the time...Unless I give you credit for having sold at 200 in Dec, then bought back at 115 in March, then sold again in August... but that is too much to be expected.

I am quite confident that Apple will likely be higher next year than it is now. So traders can make money and buy and holders can make money.

Perhaps not on the same stocks. Some are better for trading and some are better for holding.

And you are correct perhaps that the days of by and hold as a universal principal may have wained.

Well, before we make investment decisions, macro economic turmoil should be factored in from now on, even if you're buying into a great company like Apple.

I wish more bloggers would participate in the comments section as you do.

Some of the comments by readers are intelligent and stimulating and I, for one, welcome your responses. Blogging stocks is my favorite part of AOL Money & Finance.

Yes, but no gloating unless of course you were short Apple, had puts on the dow, or were short/puts on Lehman, Merrill, etc. I mean get in the game man. If you see my post from Jackson Hole in August of 2007 you see that I advised, professed a wish that Gentle Ben would get all of the banks together and find out just exactly what was on the books and I also said in July of this year to get out of commodities
as oil was going to $95 by Xmas. I also said that rampant speculation by both hedge and sovereign wealth funds was responsible for the incredible rise in the price of oil. Am I happy that oil went to $89 in Oct? No, it obviously happened for far different (negative) reasons then those that I had originally factored into the equation. So I was correct but for all the wrong reasons. The market is on sale. This reminds me of the meltdown of 87.
It is going to be interesting to read the books that are written about this epoch. Is it really possible that some stocks have derivatives and naked short positions equal to 5X the amount of common? And if history is any guide, and of course, this time its different, (isn't it always?), (heavy sarcasm) the market will come back earlier than any of us imagine. Things seem to move so much faster today and I think I need to start shortening my time horizons. After all, we live in the information age. Soon, I'll be getting back into Apple. (Still hold 1250 Shares in SEP IRA) If I had guts I'd blindly do it today. Just buy and check in three months. Nevertheless, I don't think I'll have to snort an aspirin off the back of a male Silverback Gorilla in the Bronx Zoo as I don't believe that POT is going to $300+ anytime soon. But in the end here's the deal: Set those stops and sell when things get rough. Don't drive drunk and don't trade a fantasy market. Regardless of what you or anyone else wants to happen it plays out in real-time from second-to-second. Be a big boy or girl. Cramer didn't do it, Beltway Greg didn't do it, Sheldon didn't do it, you did it. You bought the stock Bud Fox and yes from time-to-time Mr. Gecko's office will come calling.

What's good for the gorilla is good for Beltway Greg

Beltway Greg
Obama by 6%

Apple had a good day, but I think it's gonna be awhile before they ever get back to where they were, or even close. Sentiment for AAPL is looking pretty bearish (http://predictwallstreet.com/forecast.aspx?symbol=AAPL). Sentiment has seen a few temporary bullish up surges. Although, I guess you could say that for most companies right now as well.

Besides the economic turmoil, Apple's stock can simply fall again on Steve Jobs health condition, whether it's a rumor or not.