On September 27th, investors thought the $700 bailout package was on the verge of passing the House. Hank Paulson and George W. Bush pushed that bill as the way to avoid financial calamity -- and "heaven help us" if it failed to pass. Last Monday, the bill was voted down -- and the Dow fell a record 778 points. Last Friday, an $810 billion version of the bill passed -- with added sweeteners.
So, did the clouds in the heavens part to reveal sunshine and rainbows? Not exactly. Since the market closed on the 27th -- the day before the bailout to save the world was expected to pass -- the Dow has lost 1,188 points, wiping out $2 trillion in stock market value. I wonder whether anyone actually believed the government when it said the bailout bill would fix things.
I didn't, because I did not expect the bailout to work. The good news is that with the market regularly tanking so much every day, our leaders are getting ever more desperate to try something that will work. This increases the odds that they will try what I think is a better plan. And if it would kindly supply a $25 billion guarantee to the $1.7 trillion Commercial Paper (CP) market. This would help companies finance payroll and buy inventory. (How hard would that be to do this after the government has already set aside $50 billion to guarantee the $3.4 trillion money market industry?)
Meanwhile, if you need the money you have "invested" in stocks in the next six years, I suggest taking your losses today rather than waiting until your holdings drop even further. As I posted, between 1930 and 1932, stocks lost 80% of their value and they've already fallen 29% so far this year.
Could they fall even more in the next few years? Sure. If so, and you lack the patience or time to wait for a recovery, it might make sense to cut the losses now.
Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter
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Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
10-07-2008 @ 4:04AM
Patriot said...
Its all part of a global plan to bring in the New World Order... Go to Google Videos and watch a little 2 hr movie by Alex Jones called "ENDGAME" It's time to WAKE UP AMERICA/WORLD!!!