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I just spent the last hour or so looking around the market, trying to find something to buy. I haven't purchased a stock in a while. I'm in the mood. But, you know something, it's pretty tough out there, to state the very, very obvious.
I read a piece today by my colleague Sheldon Liber in which he takes Jim Cramer to task for being too bearish. Sheldon makes some great points. In fact, he inspired me to find something out there. Unfortunately, I came up empty. I mean, I was looking at adding some shares of Marvel (NYSE: MVL) to my existing position in that stock. To be honest, I felt more inclined to preserve the profits in that stock by selling out of the position. Yet, Marvel at under $30 isn't a bad buy, in my opinion. Still, I didn't feel like adding, and that felt completely anathema to my emotional mindset.
I then thought about Disney (NYSE: DIS) and General Electric (NYSE: GE). And Coca-Cola (NYSE: KO). Nothing felt right. Nothing. Why? Well, I just don't see the merit of adding to positions just yet. Simply put, I see us going down instead of up. The market action today in the major indexes is not encouraging at all.
It's funny, because this is a case of the two sides of the same story being right. Cramer is correct in that the selling is not over. Sheldon is correct about there being values out there. But things feel so troubled. I mean, why isn't Coke rallying with all the chaos? Yes, I know many investors are concerned about growth at the company, but shouldn't it be rocketing higher with a defensive premium? Puzzling.
I hope to resolve my inner conflict soon and find some extremely compelling value out there to put money into. But, I have to say, if I do some buying, I may also do some selling to fund the purchase. Get out of a few of my profitable names (I have only a few, sad to say, at this point) to defend at least some of my capital. I'm not a panic seller, and I hope to never be one.
Unfortunately, I think we have a long ways to go with this bearish market, so I guess my biggest tests are yet to come.
Disclosure: I own Coke, Disney, GE, Marvel; positions can change at any time.
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Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
10-07-2008 @ 4:43PM
beachpaul said...
GE at $18, Time-Warner at $10, I remember your friend Cramer, last fall Predicting its rise to $25, There are some tremendous buys coming when the DOW slides down to the low eight thousands. Then there is my bank. Small, (five branches), conservative, a bank whose stock has actually climbed this week, where our money has been parked safely, as we liquified half of our net worth the first six months of this year waiting for this week to finally happen. The only bull left on Wall Street is Bull S, the same bull thats always there.
10-07-2008 @ 5:08PM
william lindblad said...
Steve, what you disclose as holdings are worth sitting on.
I read most of the stuff out here, plus a whole lot more. The difference between Liber and Cramer is that one is steady and the other a rubber ball - bouncing.
What is lacking today is leadership, be it right, wrong or indifferent. Something compared to one of the old Chrysler commercials - don't stand there - do something.
We are here because leadership failed. Oversight, as defined in the dictionary includes the word "Congressional" and I still wonder how the House and Senate finance and banking committees, which are four different ones, did not see this coming. Now we have Sen. Waxman investigating oversight and Congressman Miller calling for change in the 401K system, all while blaming George Bush!
Nero fiddles and Rome burns!
Your article reflects the thoughts of many. Your confidence has been shaken and with that, hesitation and caution come into play. It is good to avoid and open man hole but you must still walk down the street. This is not the end of the world and the markets will stabilize - world wide. It will take some time.
The young can take risk. The middle age learns caution. The old get conservative.
None of the above should be taken as you can't make a buck.