On Tuesday, Massachusetts, which would rank in the top 100 countries in the world in terms of GDP if ranked as a nation, postponed the sale of $750 million in short-term notes for the second time in two weeks, due to a lack of demand.
However, it should be pointed out that Massachusetts's decision occurred before the U.S. Federal Reserve's decision, announced Tuesday at 9 a.m. EDT, to buy all corporate commercial paper to ease tight credit markets.
Further, although the municipal market differs from the corporate commercial paper market, the Fed's action aimed at easing conditions in the credit market overall, via both guaranteeing debt payment and by moral suasion. Many economists see this as the Fed's attempt to change market psychology via the central bank's enormous financial resources, monetary policy stance, and regulatory powers.
Still, economists caution that the Fed's commercial paper guarantee does not end counterparty risk; it simply eliminates a segment of that counterparty risk. According to economist David H. Wang, more actions by the Fed and U.S. Treasury undoubtedly will be needed to get credit flowing more freely and also reduce perhaps the biggest systemic problem: fear. Commercial paper is about a $1.5 trillion market, while states and local governments borrow about $2.8 trillion, Wang said.
"Massachusetts' second [short-term debt] postponement capsules the current climate in the credit markets. Massachusetts is not a high-risk borrower. Many lenders have plenty of money. But little activity is occurring and borrowing rates remain high, which points to a pervasive lack of confidence by lenders," Wang said. "Massachusetts has cash through January 2008 and can also access a 'rainy day' fund with its legislature's approval, but the state's delay underscores how constrained credit market conditions are affecting both states and the broader economy."
Wang said he's hopeful that the Fed's new Commercial Paper Funding Facility, combined with the U.S. Treasury's purchase of distressed and bad debt, will "at least stop short-term borrowing rates from rising," and free up more private capital for credit.
"This is a crisis with both short-term and long-term tasks or battles. With the Fed's commercial paper guarantee, if credit markets begin to loosen and states like Massachusetts and California can access short-term loans, today may represent a victory," Wang said. "We'll see."
Credit Market & Economic Analysis: Massachusetts joins California as states hampered accessing short-term loans, due to the financial crisis. Moreover, these are not mono-industry, small states. These are defacto large countries in terms of GDP and revenue stream diversity, which speaks to the scope and reach of the financial crisis. Further, economist Wang said that given the numerous unknowns, it's not meaningful to state 'where we are in the financial crisis.' However, several steps have been taken toward systemic health, he added, and the states' ability to access short-term credit and maintain operations would represent another step.










