My colleague (sort of) James Cramer has suddenly turned into a giant, growling bear. He has been moving in that direction for a few months and now he thinks we all should go into hibernation for five years. He is so wrong!
First of all, it is never a good idea to make decisions while you are in panic mode. Second, Jim's guidance is moving with the market so he is not making any serious prognostication, just staying slightly ahead of the mob. He might as well stick his finger in the air.
Are things bad? Yes! Could they get worse? Yes! Would I run for the hills? ABSOLUTELY NOT! Even though I agree we are in for some tough times, I think the market is reacting to more than meets the eye (see All bets are off -- stocks' irrational downside).
If I recall correctly, 50% of the significant gains in the Dow Jones Industrial Average were made on 7% of the up days. You have to be in the game to win the game. If you are in panic mode you should alter your investment portfolio so that you can rest easy. Diversification helps and speculation hurts.
Most people who have been investing for any length of time have heard of dollar cost averaging. This is where you put a certain amount of money into an index fund regularly each month, so that when the market is up you are buying fewer shares at higher prices and when the market is on sale, like it may be today, you are buying more shares at a lower price. This allows you to grow your portfolio consistently while paying a reasonable price for the shares you add -- on average.
You don't see 'my pal Warren' panicking -- he is buying! As he has said often, "It's far better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price than a fair company at a wonderful price." Many stocks are trading at a discount to their historical and intrinsic value.
Last week I posted Chasing Value: General Electric is screaming to me! and did exactly as I advised my readers, buying it at $22 per share, below Berkshire Hathaway's (NYSE: BRK.A) warrant price of $22.50. Yesterday it was down, this morning it is up and I am pennies ahead, but that is not the point. The point is that the market stinks and I was able to acquire a quality company paying a healthy dividend. If Cramer thinks this stock is not going to greatly appreciate over the next five years, he is gravely mistaken. As a matter of fact I even called the recent bottom in one of my favorites here (Chasing Value: Considering Berkshire Hathaway... again) six weeks ago.
Now, I do not want to misrepresent James Cramer's rant on pulling out five years of reserve money from the market. He believes that you need to have the security to survive a possible long down trend in the market. I think that is one of the most pessimistic calls I have ever heard. We recovered from the Great Depression faster than that. The stronger companies will survive and prosper and there are many.
While the market has been crumbling and all the bears have been grinning, I posted a winning package for all to see and I have been tracking its progress closely (see Serious Money: Stable stocks beating S&P 500 - CB, DIS, JNJ, TEVA, XEL).Today, in this post, I have highlighted seven good companies and I would argue that there are a hundred more in today's beaten down market. If you do not believe me, then just wait for Berkshire's next quarterly report and you will probably read that Buffett has found at least twenty. All the while, Cramer and others are adding to the fear in the market for no good reason. However, if you want to side with him and sell me your shares at a great discount, 'my pal Warren' and I will be looking to buy.
Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the principal for design and research at an architecture & planning firm. He writes the columns Chasing Value and Serious Money. DISCLOSURE: I currently own shares of BRK.B, GE and JNJ.











Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
10-07-2008 @ 1:43PM
ekrabs said...
Thank you for this post.
I don't always disagree with Cramer, but I strongly disagree with him here. Panicking and throwing all your money into the under-the-mattress fund has never been a good investing strategy.
10-07-2008 @ 1:13PM
Gary E. Sattler said...
When given that Cramer most effectively operates as a leader in the lemming principle, then it would seem that he wants his Cramer clones to follow his lead by taking their own five year reserves out of the market. The question is, why?
I haven't cashed out my fund holdings, and I won't, but I have no personally controlled stock portfolio at this time. I'm not buying any stocks until this world economy sifts itself through.
Yes, right or wrong, I'm about as conservative an investor as you'll find.
10-07-2008 @ 1:35PM
big L said...
Don't ya think that Cramer is talking to his audience. He is giving some good advice to them. To err on the side of caution. You and your pal Warren , are NOT his customers.
Buffet is very tiresome. Just another leftie that has made it and is pulling in the gang-plank.
10-07-2008 @ 1:39PM
Limoman said...
VERY GOOD Article..
CRAMER has been WRONG Far too many times since having his own show and is always 6 mos Too late..
> SELL and Buy GOLD? + Gld Dwn -35%
>Sell and Own only CD's,MMkt? After you've lost -25%?
> CALLED A CEO A LIAR ABOUT HIS CO.'S DEBT AND THE CEO WAS CORRECT! Driving that co.'s Stock down 25% more ! I hope the CEO and the Co. Sues CRAMER for that deformation!
> Telling Savers/Invstors to Sell if you only have a 5 yr Timeframe? R U NUTS! The last Bear only took 3 yrs to start to recover! And what happened in 2003, Mr. Cramer?
> And What Does all your Peers with Proven Successfull Investing experience say to be doing? "Buy On the Way Down.. Don't sell or Buy Bonds!"
This guy has run his course, time for CNBC to Let him Go! He has done more harm to our Country as a whole than Good!
Why didn't you Talk about Using Options and Calls to hedge your Portfolio, Mr. Cramer?
Why Didn't you Tell Investors to at least Take 20% of what they have in Equities and Buy SDS/Pro Funds Ultra Short Funds,
Mr. Cramer? ( + 75% & 105% )
Your a misleading Fool and best to get you off the air .
And when the markets start to recover and Those Indexes Repeat as they did in 03'? How are you going to justify to all those who Sold ? Loosing over a 50% swing..or more!
R U READING THIS NBC/CNBC?
10-07-2008 @ 2:01PM
william lindblad said...
The "market" extends far beyond Wall St.
The purpose of money is for trade/exchange and keeping it in the mattress depends on your personal strategy. There is a significant difference between fear and concern just as there is between fear and greed. I went to the mattress, so to speak, in Dec. of 07 and my goal was to wait for opportunity. It arose, and I am happy with my decision as it will allow me to free more capital for the future. Moving from high risk to low risk may be prudent as present conditions are sure to produce bargains. Expecting to stay for the long term in sound investment has a very good record. This is not the end of the world but things are not going to get well overnight. Patience!
Amazing that mad money Jim had horns with a six foot spread just a few short months ago. Maybe he really is from another world as it sure looks like he is not part of this one.
(never paid him much attention anyway)
10-07-2008 @ 2:56PM
Shelley said...
Indeed. Don't Panic. BUT - have an intelligent exit strategy from the start. Do not invest int he market without having your protection in place. Hopefully a strategy that is constantly adjusting to the stock's behavior and overall market conditions. It can be a difficult challenge. Hopefully experience can be brought to your fingertips. http://www.smartstops.net
10-07-2008 @ 5:45PM
Al Capital said...
Now why would Warren Buffet panic? Comparing Buffet to the small investor is shear either lunacy or chicanery.
The average investor, or baby boomer investor nearing retirement has a great deal to worry about. Each investor can remain in the market or exit according to their own financial plans and risk tolerance.
However Jim Cramer simply alerted the small investor to do what every capital strapped company is doing, raise capital now. Sure the time to exit was in October, but your suggestion that dollar cost averaging works in this investing environment is much more dangerous than Cramer's advice. See:
http://mnrtrading.blogspot.com/
10-07-2008 @ 6:00PM
Sheldon L said...
Al C.,
You raise some good points. I should not compare Buffett to the average investor. I think my point was his approach not his situation.
Time frame is also important and given the unknowns you still need to stay liquid and perhaps dollar cost averaging does not make sense for short time horizons. However, it does over a period as long as 5 years.
You reference to your trading site implies you hate indexing, dollar cost averaging or holding anything very long.
Thanks for taking the time to comment.
10-07-2008 @ 6:31PM
Al Capital said...
Thanks for the comments Sheldon. Your inference regarding "holding anything very long" has turned out to be correct since October, but the reason is not ideological, but simple arithmetic.
When you factor in changes in market risk, most small investors should not remain in the market. Widely accepted inferences about long term stock market returns, and related dollar cost averaging, have hurt small investors disproportionately because they blindly believe that in the long run, they will do well.
That has not been the case for some time now, and because "the past does not guarantee future returns" using the simplistic arguement to stay in the market "no matter what" is just going to savage small investors.
The good investment advisors said get out in October, the rest are making excuses. It is appropriate to acknowledge that current market risk is high, and that small investors want to invest not to gamble, thus when risk is too high its not investing it is gambling, so exit, wait till risk is acceptable, and then invest.
10-07-2008 @ 10:55PM
Da Beam said...
Let's see, Mr. Liber: you recently recommended "Stable stocks beating S&P 500 - CB, DIS, JNJ, TEVA, XEL". As of today's (Oct 7) close, 4 of those 5 have gotten absolutely walloped in the last two weeks. (XEL has only taken about a 10% haircut.)
Yes, Cramer is nuts, but anyone watching his show must take that into account. I don't agree with him, but at least he's entertaining.
10-08-2008 @ 12:46AM
Sheldon L said...
Da Beam...you must have a hard time with numbers. While the stocks are down they are ahead of the indices by a huge margin. It has been documented and submitted openly for all to see.
Your comments are bewildering?
10-08-2008 @ 11:18AM
Eli said...
Cramer is throwing gas onto the fire. He is in panic mode. I didn't hear him telling anyone to sell before the crash.
10-15-2008 @ 6:22PM
dave17 said...
Sheldon L,
I have listened to Jim for a long time and while he has made mistakes he usually has made his listeners money. You have some good points but you need to watch the show, Jim has told people over and over again to sell into the upticks and get a 20% cash position. he never said sell everything. he is also telling us good companies to invest in but that are conservitive and financially sound with lots of cash. His criteria is simple get into companies that pay at least 4% dividend yield and that have plenty of cash. You are also comparing your average investor that has no real experience with the markets to Warren Buffet, that is a joke. He has a lot of information that the average person does not have the time or knowledge of where to look at his disposal. For most of Jim's audience we work all day and have little time to do a lot of research. Jim has stated repeatedly that you need to think for yourself and evaluate your personal position before you make a stock purchase or sale based on his recommondations. I read a lot of articles and you make some good points but be fair in your comments, we all have made poor investment decisions and you are not exempt from this area.