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No Cramer, now is not the time to panic!

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My colleague (sort of) James Cramer has suddenly turned into a giant, growling bear. He has been moving in that direction for a few months and now he thinks we all should go into hibernation for five years. He is so wrong!

First of all, it is never a good idea to make decisions while you are in panic mode. Second, Jim's guidance is moving with the market so he is not making any serious prognostication, just staying slightly ahead of the mob. He might as well stick his finger in the air.

Are things bad? Yes! Could they get worse? Yes! Would I run for the hills? ABSOLUTELY NOT! Even though I agree we are in for some tough times, I think the market is reacting to more than meets the eye (see All bets are off -- stocks' irrational downside).

If I recall correctly, 50% of the significant gains in the Dow Jones Industrial Average were made on 7% of the up days. You have to be in the game to win the game. If you are in panic mode you should alter your investment portfolio so that you can rest easy. Diversification helps and speculation hurts.

Most people who have been investing for any length of time have heard of dollar cost averaging. This is where you put a certain amount of money into an index fund regularly each month, so that when the market is up you are buying fewer shares at higher prices and when the market is on sale, like it may be today, you are buying more shares at a lower price. This allows you to grow your portfolio consistently while paying a reasonable price for the shares you add -- on average.

You don't see 'my pal Warren' panicking -- he is buying! As he has said often, "It's far better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price than a fair company at a wonderful price." Many stocks are trading at a discount to their historical and intrinsic value.

Last week I posted Chasing Value: General Electric is screaming to me! and did exactly as I advised my readers, buying it at $22 per share, below Berkshire Hathaway's (NYSE: BRK.A) warrant price of $22.50. Yesterday it was down, this morning it is up and I am pennies ahead, but that is not the point. The point is that the market stinks and I was able to acquire a quality company paying a healthy dividend. If Cramer thinks this stock is not going to greatly appreciate over the next five years, he is gravely mistaken. As a matter of fact I even called the recent bottom in one of my favorites here (Chasing Value: Considering Berkshire Hathaway... again) six weeks ago.

Now, I do not want to misrepresent James Cramer's rant on pulling out five years of reserve money from the market. He believes that you need to have the security to survive a possible long down trend in the market. I think that is one of the most pessimistic calls I have ever heard. We recovered from the Great Depression faster than that. The stronger companies will survive and prosper and there are many.

While the market has been crumbling and all the bears have been grinning, I posted a winning package for all to see and I have been tracking its progress closely (see Serious Money: Stable stocks beating S&P 500 - CB, DIS, JNJ, TEVA, XEL).Today, in this post, I have highlighted seven good companies and I would argue that there are a hundred more in today's beaten down market. If you do not believe me, then just wait for Berkshire's next quarterly report and you will probably read that Buffett has found at least twenty. All the while, Cramer and others are adding to the fear in the market for no good reason. However, if you want to side with him and sell me your shares at a great discount, 'my pal Warren' and I will be looking to buy.

Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the principal for design and research at an architecture & planning firm. He writes the columns Chasing Value and Serious Money. DISCLOSURE: I currently own shares of BRK.B, GE and JNJ.

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Last updated: November 10, 2009: 11:54 AM

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