Leading technical analyst says U.S. stocks 'halfway through' decline

Posted Oct 8th 2008 3:10PM by Joseph Lazzaro
Filed under: Forecasts, Indices, Technical Analysis, S and P 500, DJIA, Recession

The S&P 500 has dropped 36% in the past year and the Dow is down about 35% since hitting a high around 14,280 about a year ago.

Each decline is large enough to qualify as a bear market. And yet there's much more downside ahead? Say it ain't so.

Top-ranked analyst is bearish

Top-ranked market analyst Jeffrey de Graaf says it is so, or it will be so, according to his analysis, telling Bloomberg News Wednesday U.S. stocks are only 'halfway through' their current decline. In Wednesday afternoon trading, the Dow was down about 18 points to 9,428 and the S&P 500 was up 1 point to 997.

"The big concern is that we're going into recession,'' de Graaf, a senior managing director at ISI Group Inc. in New York, told Bloomberg News. "The first part is the unwind of the previous boom, the second is the recession that follows. We're in the camp that we're only halfway through this." De Graaf has been the top-ranked technical analyst in Institutional Investor magazine's poll the last four years.

As many investors/readers are aware, technical analysts use price and chart patterns to predict stock and index levels. This differs from fundamental analysts, who base predictions on company performance (future revenue, earnings, cash flow etc.) and economic data (retail sales, housing starts, industrial production, etc.).

De Graaf added that there's no "fuel to in the tank" to get stocks rising, but he would not specify a low for the S&P 500 or Dow, Bloomberg News reported.

Market Analysis: Far be it for yours truly to argue with tech analyst extraordinaire de Graaf, who forwards a compelling argument. A cyclical economic downturn, combined with a new, more-cautious, regulated credit environment -- after the financial crisis has ended -- suggests a challenging environment for companies and stocks, in the immediate quarters ahead, at minimum.

Tags: ISI Group, Jeffrey de Graaf, U.S. economy