The London interbank offered rate, or LIBOR -- the rate banks charge each other for overnight dollar loans -- increased 144 basis points to 5.38% early Wednesday morning -- a very high rate for short-term cash. It was the second straight day the LIBOR had risen more than 100 basis points.
Overnight rates are key sources of cash for corporations and other larger institutions that use the cash to pay suppliers, make payroll, roll over debt, etc. Hence, a very high overnight rate will discourage corporations from conducting business, restricting commerce, and thus slow the economy, so says economist Richard Felson.
"We have to force overnight rates lower and encourage banks to lend. High overnight interest rates will discourage companies from conducting typical business and will slow the economy. We've got to stop this bad momentum, eliminate fear, and get the ball rolling in the other direction or GDP will contract more," Felson said.
Further, Felson reiterated that the U.S. Federal Reserve, other major central banks -- along with the fiscal policies of these governments -- must either find ways to get banks to lend or "they must create new tools and institutions to make sure that corporations and other institutions have adequate overnight and short-term capital."
"The crisis cannot be allowed to prevent companies from conducting typical business or states from paying suppliers, buying equipment or paying employees, or the economy will freeze-up," Felson said.
New tools/techniques that may have to be tried, in Felson's view, include: the U.S. Treasury making emergency loans to states / counties if private financing dries up; additional increases/expansions in the Fed's term auction facilities; allowing corporations to borrow cash from subsidiaries abroad tax-free; and/or direct Fed loans to corporations. Longer term, Felson said, new, regional banks could be established to replace insolvent banks and/or banks that continue to hoard cash and/or refuse to lend.
Monetary Policy / Economic Analysis: The Fed has the authority to extend credit to any company under "unusual and exigent circumstances." The FDIC has the authority to guarantee bank debt, for a temporary period. Further, the U.S. Treasury, as a result of the recently-passed rescue legislation, has broad authority and resources (up to $700 billion, with another Congressional o.k.) to buy assets, invest funds and/or create other vehicles as needed (such as agency to insure assets or mortgages).
All of the above, along with commercial paper guarantees by the Fed, must be used to force overnight interest rates lower and promote the lending that is the lifeblood of commercial activity -- the lifeblood of the economy.
Further, fiscal governments in the world's major economies, led by the U.S. Treasury, must speed their efforts to remove distressed / bad debts from the financial system.
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