TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says that as in '87, nothing seems to work, whether it's the rate cut or positive technical readings.
This market is so much like 1987, it freaks me out. In that market, in the week leading up to the crash and the crash week itself, you would enter an order to buy a stock when it was up 2, get the report that you bought it up 3, and then it would be down 2. That's exactly what happened with Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) (Cramer's Take) today. Exactly.
In that market you felt ripped off like you wouldn't believe. Every day. You would try to buy when the market sold off and never get the low or even lower prices, and you would feel like you could do nothing right.
It ground you up and spit you out. In that market you would get good news, and it would last long enough to draw you in, and then it would spit you out -- like Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) (Cramer's Take).
Now, I have to admit that I thought the market would finish up today. I figured it almost had to, because in the end it is still a big deal that we got a coordinated cut, even if it wasn't bigger.
Didn't matter.
I also figured that with credit markets actually beginning to thaw -- and I am talking about what Tony Crescenzi talks about -- we could catch a break. And the trade where hedge funds hedge their individual stock names with and S&P future shorts, the one Doug outlined, should have been good for more of a squeeze than we got. That seemed like a reasonable reason to go up, not to mention the minus 10 reading on the oscillator and only 25% bulls.
You didn't get those kinds of readings very often in the last 20 years and not bounce.
In fact I can only recall one of them: the week before the crash of 1987. Tomorrow the short ban will come off.
Tomorrow I presume that someone will try to break Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) (Cramer's Take). I figure someone will try to break General Electric (NYSE: GE) (Cramer's Take). Someone will try to push down Citigroup (NYSE: C) (Cramer's Take). These are all free-short-fire zones, if not tomorrow then Friday.
It is why, again, I reiterate -- the operative models are 2000-2003 Nasdaq Composite and 1987.
Alas, I am heartened that the central banks no longer think inflation is the issue. I just hope they keep their eyes off gold for a moment, because it is going to go up, as there will always be people who believe the Fed should tighten, and they will buy gold. There are enough of them to take the precious metal up.
Why should you care? Because an aggressive ease -- which they refused to forecast, and all they had to say was, "We will not stop cutting until business is revived and the deflationary spiral is broken" -- will eliminate the 1932 scenario.
Considering that I think 1987 and 2000-2003 NDX are on the table, you might not think there is much to be thankful for. But that's wrong, because the market came back from 1987, and in the end the 2000-2003 experience left you a lot of bull markets away from tech to play in.
Random musings: I was spooked by MetLife (NYSE: MET) (Cramer's Take) and appalled that BAC wasn't able to rally, but it was a huge offering with an arb component, so even if it was in the hole I guess it didn't matter. . . . The rally in the oils looked like the end -- momentarily -- of a liquidation. . . . Be sure to check out the 2009 TSC investment conference. In turbulent times like these, you want to hear from as many voices as possible, and we have a great lineup for the day.
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RELATED LINKS:
Rate Cuts: A Band-Aid or a Cure?
Fed Eyes Pimco to Manage New Facility
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Jim Cramer is a director and co-founder of TheStreet.com. He contributes daily market commentary for TheStreet.com's sites and serves as an adviser to the company's CEO. At the time of publication, Cramer was long General Electric, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley.
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Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
10-09-2008 @ 10:52AM
Bill said...
Time to buy good companies stock & hold, Jim.
10-09-2008 @ 10:25PM
willhunterheil said...
OBAMA'S SQUANDERING AND PANDERING ARE NOT WHAT WE NEED NOW - OR EVER!!! He's a fat-cat Chicago politician who knows all about taking - and spending taxpayer dollars. Millions of dollars as Senator and City worker - soon Billions and Trillions as potential President. He has NEVER signed a check to employees or created a business budget where he was personally accountable. In fact, he wouldn't be hireable based on his squandering record and fiscal mismanagement... people please take a look at the multimillion dollar overhead projector he made possible for a Chicago institution - then take a look at the $200,000 that Obama received from this very same institution in campaign contributions. What a Liar, Fraud (see the ACORN records). He's not fit to be the President, let alone a public servant. He's not even fulfilling his work obligations in the Senate - while collecting his Senate pay - not that he needs it, he's got the entire Hollywood/liberal media conundrum serving him up as if he were the "Messiah". He is not...he's not even a man of honor. Integrity? He left it behind in high school under the tutelage of a Poet/Communist named "Frank" whose real name is Frank Marshall Davis (see Obama's own bio book).
NOOOOOOOBAMA
10-09-2008 @ 2:25PM
beachpaul said...
Well, a pack of cigarettes is now worth more than a share of GM. What shade is that?
10-09-2008 @ 6:54PM
Dave said...
You are part of the problem, telling ever one to sell. Shutup for a while.
10-09-2008 @ 4:17PM
Parody & Son said...
FINANCIAL CRISIS: THE MUSICAL
The economy is no laughing matter. But this parody about the economy is.
Check it out at: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=henMX35nkJg
10-09-2008 @ 4:37PM
don gabriel said...
don't worry obama will take care of every thing with his magic wand and his big mouth, don't forget to vote for him, andy you will be happy forevery!
10-09-2008 @ 5:17PM
Po Campo said...
If your still in the market tonight you know what to stay away from.....I just cannot pass up the best buying oppurtunity in a long time just because I might lose 10%........somebody talk me out of it......not
10-09-2008 @ 9:28PM
Peter Gottschall said...
The bottom is next week.
http://www.petergottschall.com/stock_market_crash_blog.html
10-09-2008 @ 11:38PM
ynot said...
Oh dear suckers, if you just focused on the housing problem not being anywhere near resolved you would think twice about jumping in this market right now. If you for one minute think you're going to make a fortune and believe that this market is going to bounce right back up you are nucking futs. We have multiple problems happening at once like never before. If you were smart enough to see this coming and were out before the market tanked then you should hold off for a while because it is going to take years for this market to stage a come back. It's getting so bad that Mexico has closed it's borders trying to keep the illegals from coming back. That was a joke, but may soon be a reality. And last, but not least, for Mr. Cramer. Did you actually have to go to college to get your job? If so, God help our schools.
10-10-2008 @ 7:11AM
Cecil Jones said...
Jim, it looks like the global market is having a heart attack and the economy is in defibrilation. What would any Dr. do to fix it? Wouldn't they shock the system with something bold and unexpected? What would a "Peace Dividend" do to the global economy? What if America decided to end the war in Iraq? Would that shock the market back to health? Clear!
10-10-2008 @ 9:25AM
Virgil Bierschwale said...
As I write this, the markets are waiting for the President to come out with his plan to stem what is happening in the markets today.
I for one hope that he understands that the market does NOT need more government intervention
What the market and the global enconomy need are confidence and money
With confidence in the system and money in their pockets, the people will start depositing their money in banks again and investing their money in the markets again
Now you're probably wondering how we're going to accomplish that and it actually is very simple
First we have to agree that the only part of the global economy that is faltering is America and our fellow countries that have followed our lead when it comes to our strategy
The oil rich countries (with the exception of us because of our drilling policies) are not having a credit problem
Now why is that ?
Could it be because we are sending them 700 Billion dollars in cash every year for oil and taking it away from the tax revenue that we need to run our country ?
Could it be because we are sending them 200 Billion dollars in cash every year as wages and taking it away from the tax revenue that we need to run our country ?
Ok, lets assume that these things are correct
Now why are we doing that ?
We are sending them money for oil because we have allowed special interest groups to cripple us with their demands instead of doing what we need to do
We are sending them money for wages because we as investors want more profitable companies no matter who gets hurt so that we may make money with our investments, not realizing all the while that we are actually crippling ourselves
Ok, now that the finger pointing is done, what do we do to fix the problem and restore the global economy and restore faith in our banks and investments ?
1. We drill
2. We mandate that in 5 years we will have an energy source that will be driving our cars that does not rely on oil. Don't tell me we can't do it. Hell we put men on the moon and launched the largest fleet the world has ever seen in WWII
3. We bring our jobs home as this will give Americans more money to start investing in our future again and our fellow countries will follow our example because we fessed up that we made a mistake and that we're correcting it and it is working
4. We grow some big cajones and we do the above 3 steps and this ship will right itself virtually overnight
And one result that you might not expect will be the fact that we will be destroying terrorist extremists because we will be removing their sources of income by stopping payments for oil and by stopping payments for wages that we need here in America.
Lets stop the finger pointing and get the government out of our markets and lets grow some big one's and do the right thing and take care of America and let our fellow countries do the same thing in their countries
It really is that simple
Virgil Bierschwale
http://www.KeepAmericaAtWork.com
10-12-2008 @ 1:56PM
Mike said...
I don't see how anyone can follow your advice. You are spewing out information without checking the facts. You seem to be manic-depressive. I think you are out for yourself Cramer and not good for the country or anybody for that matter. It may be best for you to check into a mental institution. I really mean that.
10-18-2008 @ 5:49PM
options said...
There certainly seem to be a lot of similarities to 87. The good news from that comparison is that hopefully we will not experience a lengthy recession/depression
Options Guy
http://www.HedgeFundJobList.com