Modest (and appropriate) expectations: Think holding Dow 8,000

Posted Oct 9th 2008 5:30PM by Joseph Lazzaro
Filed under: Indices, S and P 500, DJIA, Recession, Financial Crisis

With the nationalization of banks seemingly exceeding IPOs these days, to say that both developed and developing nations economic performance expectations are more-modest today than they were a year ago would be an understatement.

Still, investors would be wise to take a page from that playbook, as it relates to the Dow, and more broadly, to the U.S. stock market, so says economist Richard Felson.

Concentrating on the problem, not the inconvenience

Felson, who took pains to point out that he is not a market analyst or stock guru, nevertheless highlighted the importance of reining-in stock expectations: people who are 'looking for the market to rally,' or who look for a relatively quick turnaround in stocks in a quarter are missing the point.

"The purpose of the monetary and fiscal actions being taken is to maintain the financial system, so that there are stock markets, not to get the Dow to rise, or to create the next bull market," Felson said. "Investors need to keep sight of that fact." Today the Dow closed down 678 points to 8,579 and the S&P 500 was down 75 points to 909.

Marketwach.com Washington Bureau Chief Rex Nutting, in a news analysis article, perhaps best summarized the U.S.'s current predicament, the global landscape, and the mood on Wall Street and in financial circles.

"Something didn't happen Thursday morning, and that's the best news we've had in more than a week," Nutting said.

Market Analysis: Uber-pertinent analysis from both Felson and Nutting. Further, with the above as a backdrop, keep your eye on the following levels for the DJIA: 8,500 / 8,200 / 8000. There's considerable technical support at/near 8,500 and 8,200 and, of course, psychological support at 8,000.

If the stock market can make it through the financial crisis -- with the resumption of more or less normal credit flows -- and hold the 8,000-level, consider it a moral victory. Note -- that doesn't mean the Dow can't drop further after the financial crisis has been resolved: the depth/length of the U.S. recession will have much to say about the Dow's level after the resumption of credit flows. But let's address one task/goal at a time: for now, holding Dow 8,000 when normal credit flows resume.

Tags: bear market, DJIA, Dow Jones Industrial Average, gdp, inthenews, U.S. economy