Could Wells Fargo buyout of Wachovia fail?

Citigroup (NYSE: C) has dropped out of the bidding for damaged bank Wachovia (NYSE: WB). It may be glad it did. According to The Wall Street Journal, "Wells Fargo & Co. (NYSE: WFC) won the battle for Wachovia Corp. as rival suitor Citigroup Inc. walked away from compromise negotiations because of worries about the quality of some of Wachovia's assets."

Citi wanted the FDIC to put a safety net under the value of some of Wachovia's assets. Investors and analysts viewed the Wells Fargo bid as better because it valued Wachovia's share price at a higher level and did not involve any government guarantees at all.

The lack of government guarantees and the likelihood that Wachovia's balance sheet is getting worse each day could cause Wells Fargo to pass on a buyout just as Citi did. In a credit crisis as severe as this one, it is almost certain that the value of bank assets is dropping due to mortgage-backed paper and weak loans. Wachovia has been viewed as having a balance sheet that is worse than any other large American banks. That would make it likely that its situation has gone from being troubled to being desperate.

At this point, the odds have to be 50/50 that Well Fargo will either disappear or sharply drop the value of its offer.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com