Market fear has been running rampant recently and with the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropping hundreds of
points daily, it is easy to understand why. The CBOE Volatility Index know as the VIX has hit all time high levels that have exceed all previous readings since they started the index back in 1990.
Today the VIX hit 70.90; a month ago it closed at 24.52 ---an average level for the year. That is a 189% rise in the last month! In 2007 it averaged 17.3.
Before the current crisis the highest reading for the VIX was 45.74 recorded on 10/8/98. That means we have surpassed the previous high by 55%.
The VIX is based on call option premium scared investors are willing to pay for protection on their stocks.
Kevin Kersten is an Stock and Options Analyst with InvestorsObserver.com. Disclosure note: Mr. Kersten owns and/or controls a diversified portfolio of long and short positions that may include holdings in companies he writes about.











Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
10-10-2008 @ 12:45PM
healthcare said...
yes the market fear. I also receive the mail from the http://stockpreacher.com newsletter.
10-10-2008 @ 3:04PM
JDSalinger12 said...
Of course, there is market fear. We have now had five tough days for the market and counting. Investors really need to make changes to their investing strategy if they have not already, especially since the market has not hit the bottom yet.. This means move money into T-bills and municipal bonds and invest some overseas to guard as a hedge against the coming inflation of the US dollar. I use offshore bank accounts for this and they have helped me. If you would like to learn more, feel free to visit my site.
Best,
Frank Miller
http://www.theoffshorebankaccount.com
10-12-2008 @ 9:38AM
Steve Selengut said...
Someonne once suggested: "Buy Low". I say, with Investment Grade Value Stocks At Ten Year Lows, "It's Party Time!"
There has never been a correction that has not proven to be an investment opportunity. While everything is down in price, there is actually less to worry about than when prices are historically high. More money has been lost by people who bought into last year's markets than by those who will buy into this one, at this stage of the correction. When the going gets tough, the tough go shopping.
Every correction is different, the result of various economic and/or political circumstances that create the need for adjustments in the financial markets. This correction is worse than most that I've experienced, but the doom and gloom scenarios many have been pushing are unlikely to come to fruition. Once the media elects a new president, they'll just have to start reporting better news: 96% of all mortgages are current sounds a whole lot better than 20% of all sub-prime mortgages are in trouble.
Some fundamentals in many excellent companies have eroded significantly (due in part to accounting rules that are being changed), but for the most part, interest payments are being made and few dividends have been cut. Bargain prices abound in both the equity and fixed income markets and interest rates are historically low.
A cocktail of credit market laxatives is working its way into a constipated world economy. Relief is on the way. Today's prices may well be looked at as the lowest of the next ten years! Here's a list of things to think about or to do while Investment Grade value Stock prices are at ten-year lows:
Don't beat yourself up by looking at your account market value. You should expect it to be down significantly because all security prices have fallen. Look for ways to add to your portfolios---that's what the smart guys are doing.
Keep in mind that someone is buying the individual shares that the others are selling. The buyers will hold on until they can turn a profit, and the cash on the sidelines will eventually find its way back into the markets as prices rise.
There are no crystal balls, and no place for hindsight in an investment strategy. Buying too soon, in the right portfolio percentage, is nearly as important to long-term investment success as selling too soon is during rallies.
Take a look at the future. Nope, you can't tell when the rally will come or how long it will last. If you are buying quality securities now, as you certainly should be, you will be able to love the rally even more than you did the last time--- as you take yet another round of profits.
As, or if, the correction continues, buy more slowly as opposed to more quickly, and establish new positions incompletely so that you can add to them safely later. There's more to "Shop at The Gap" than meets the eye, and you may run out of cash well before the new rally begins.
Cash flow is king, so take smaller profits sooner than usual as long as there are abundant buying opportunities. Today, nearly eighty percent of all Investment Grade Value Stocks are down more than 15% from their 52-week highs.
In looking at your income securities, cash flow is the primary concern; as long as it continues unabated, the change in market value is merely a perceptual/emotional issue. A loosening of the credit markets should move CEF prices back into normal ranges.
Note that Working Capital keeps growing in spite of falling prices. Examine your holdings for opportunities to average down on cost per share or to increase your yield on fixed income securities.
Identify new buying opportunities using a consistent set of rules, rally or correction. That way you will always know which of the two you are dealing with in spite of what the Wall Street propaganda mill spits out. Focus on Investment Grade Value Stocks; it's easier, generally less risky, and better for your peace of mind.
Stop examining your portfolio's performance in market value terms--- it leads to fearful, often frantic, decision-making. Keep your asset allocation and investment objectives clearly in focus and try to think in terms of market and economic cycles as opposed to calendar quarters and years. The Working Capital Model provides a calmer way of dealing with portfolio dislocations during severe corrections.
So long as everything is down, there is really less to worry about. This is the result of panic selling by ETF and open-end mutual fund owners and the beginnings of year-end window dressing by fund managers.
Corrections, regardless of cause, will vary in depth and duration, but both characteristics are only clearly visible in rear view mirrors. The short and deep ones are most lovable; the long and slow ones are more difficult to deal with. If you over-think the environment or over-cook the research, you'll miss the after-party.
Unlike many things in life, Stock Market realities need to be dealt with quickly, decisively, and with zero hindsight. Because amid all the uncertainty, there is one indisputable fact that reads equally well in either market direction: there has never been a correction/rally that has not succumbed to the next rally/correction.
Get out there and buy low for a change.
Steve Selengut
http://www.kiawahgolfinvestmentseminars.com/
http://www.valuestockindex.com
Professional Portfolio Management since 1979
Author of: "The Brainwashing of the American Investor: The Book that Wall Street Does Not Want YOU to Read", and "A Millionaire's Secret Investment Strategy"
10-13-2008 @ 8:47AM
Doug said...
why does everything have to be deceided by which party will get the most credit? Don't they remember who they are there for? Not the politics but the US Citzens! Ecomony boost? Pretty simple to me, take the 700 billin and divide it up among the adult US citizens making less than 100 k a year. Boost the economy! Who is good at math? what would that come too per?
10-13-2008 @ 8:48AM
tasquatch said...
The phrase 'fear index' is an interesting way of looking at the VIX. Another suitable phrase would be 'uncertainty index'. The market is now in a state of uncertainty with willing sellers and waiting buyers. This makes it easy for stock prices to plunge. Investor confidence is low with extreme bearish sentiments.
I have created an index called the 'sentinelling index' which uses stock/market prices to measure the level of bullish and bearish sentments prevailing at any one time. In addition current and relevant news clips (from other sources) are posted and inked to provide empirical support for the 'sentinelling index'.
Please visit my blog at http://tasquatch-sentinelling.blogspot.com/ and feel free to post a comment.
Regards,
Tasquatch