We have finally reached a point where all denial is gone and we are ready to admit the error of our ways. Sure, there were plenty of folks ringing the alarm bells years ago, but universal acceptance of the fundamental economic calamity that faces us from every corner of the world, and every person with two cents to rub together, has just now taken hold.I wrote quite some time ago that the turning point in the economy cannot come about until President Bush admits there is a problem and that he will be the last person to do so. While I do not have a high opinion of President Bush, the facts speak for themselves as I wrote one year ago. (See Is Bush giving the country away without knowing it?)
The storm is not over, but we are coming to grips with it at very great expense. Admitting our errors is only the start; now we will have to spend years fixing problems and making many compromises. Unfortunately many people may lose their homes, jobs or both before we see significant growth.
We have had temporary relief from record high oil prices and commodities prices. However, I would emphasize "temporary" because the developing world will not stop expanding and the quick remedies to our world wide financial crises, started here in the United States (see: The George W. Bush economic plan?) has the potential to cause crippling inflation.
This is not something that I fear in 2009. In 2009 we will be trying to get back on our feet. Hopefully in 2010 and beyond we are not knocked down again by the increased money supply and lack of equivalent production. That is the key, and I hope the next administration understands that. I fear neither party gets it -- Serious Money: Stimulate productivity not consumption.
In the meantime, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose a shocking 936 points today to close at 9,388. Clearly, major investors are back playing in their giant sandbox. It would be foolish to think that this is any more than a sigh of relief stemming from the treasury departments of every nation propping up their weak financial institutions over the weekend.
I would use this occasion to clear the junk out of your portfolios and then run to quality. There are plenty of first class companies beaten down recently that are bargains right now. I have listed six of my favorites. Here are some important factors they have in common. They all have strong balance sheets, pay a dividend, good cash flow, a back log of business and strong management. Three of them remain Triple-A rated, including one financial institution.
- General Electric (NYSE: GE) AAA rated
- Johnson and Johnson (NYSE: JNJ) AAArated
- Merck and Co (NYSE: MRK)
- Procter and Gamble (NYSE: PG)
- Raytheon Company (NYSE: RTN)
- Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC) AAA rated
Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the principal for design and research at an architecture & planning firm. He writes the columns Chasing Value and Serious Money. Disclosure: I own shares of GE, JNJ, MRK, & WFC.











Reader Comments (Page 1 of 2)
10-13-2008 @ 5:23PM
william lindblad said...
Well, I guess I get to go first. Dubya, yea, but he is only a small part. The makings start with Glass-Steagal, the concept of "self regulation", the push on HUD during Clinton, but most of all, it is simply two words - Oversight and Regulation. It is the latter that failed, not the White House. I don't think we should blame Clinton or Bush as neither promoted policy that was detrimental of the public. I will give you that Clinton is a little more alert - when his mind was not below his waist.
As it stands, just about everyone is pointing the finger of blame but should be concentrating on keeping the economy on an even keel. It would be nice to see integrity and responsibility return to the business sector. Business leaders are entitled to good compensation, but only if they produce. Rewarding failure is a bad policy, promotes corruption and that evidence is clear. Shareholders are entitled to some degree of security in their investments. An economy does not run well when the statement "do you know where your money is?" becomes based in fear. As FDR said " we have nothing to fear, but fear itself" rang true most of last week and it is good to see some sense of stability return. How it goes from here will be determined by the leaders - world over. Much damage has been done.
10-13-2008 @ 6:32PM
cameron said...
Back in the 1993 the banks were very strickt and did not just so frivously give out money. The government ,or the great Democrat Clinton himself, told the banks that everyone needed a house even if they coudnt afford one. The banks drug their feet and Clinton again forced there hands by saying if they didnt they wouldnt be able to merge nor borrow money between each other. To sweeten the deal he said not to worry the government will back it all. Now Clinton did have reason to do this and that was because the office he was left with had managed to make the economy go straight into a ressesion, so he thought that he needed to do something drastic to get it back on track. Patience is a virtue people and I feel like we as Americans have lost track of that and one other belief that was so predominate in the shaping of America. That is you work hard today to buy for tomorrow and somehow it has turned into Ill sign my name for today and work tomorrow. I ask you if you would like to just push this problem on to your children then go ahead and vote Obama in. Him and clinton are alot alike and I feel like Obama has way to much to prove. The Economy is like a spinning plate. A slight move here, a small tweak there and you can get it up and keep it up. However if you go one way or another to fast it will come crashing down. Reagan was an amazing president and he was republican. Dont look at our current president as a republican for like his daddy before him he is a Bush. So come November lets get the economy right and vote for stability and patience not radical new change that will have the sky as well as the economy falling
10-13-2008 @ 10:08PM
Mr. noitall said...
Over-all I would say that you offer some good advice here. I still think we are in denial, and the public is begging for a bail-out, even though they say otherwise. Our government is being accomodating and has entered full bail-out mode. The only thing that is saving the Dollar for now is fear. It's being seen as a place to hide and safe haven here. And I hear that abroad the herds are lining up to buy Dollars. I think simply because for so long they have depended on us, now they have no confidence in their own abilities, and maybe they shouldn't. We will de-value our currency & the rest of the world will de-value theirs in an effort to keep up. So, I agree that we are only seeing temporary relief from rising commodity prices.
10-13-2008 @ 11:16PM
bchambers said...
well democrats the republicans run a good ecomney after all they believe in less government. this credit problem is the result of clintons hairbrained idea to gives loans to people who could not afford them or were just plain not responceable. it was only a matter of time till things went south.hell the republicans tried to stop it 4 times every time they were stopped by the dems. good job
10-14-2008 @ 12:10AM
KAREN said...
DID ANYONE LEARN FROM THE SAVINGS AND LOANS BAILOUT. WE LET THEM DO IT AGAIN.
10-14-2008 @ 1:00AM
Marie said...
And where does Congress fit in to this mess, I feel they have some responsibility here. A President doesn't do all this by himself.
10-14-2008 @ 8:13AM
Clark Mixon said...
Why did everything go to hell in a handbasket after the 2005 elections?????
10-14-2008 @ 11:25AM
CJ said...
I think that you should quit blaming President Bush for the financial crisis since it is clearly not his fault. Put the blame on the executive boards of hundreds of banks and other lenders who gave mortgage loans to people who should not have been given to them. Blame the borrowers who lied about their incomes or to the predatory lenders who lied about the borrowers' incomes or who gave them adjustable loans without making sure they could afford it when the rates would go up.
Put the blame on the predatory lenders and borrowers who were dishonest about their incomes.
I have personally prospered because of President Bush reducing income taxes. I'm grateful to President Bush for the reduced income taxes and the 2 rebate checks.
If Obama wins he will increase taxes like he has promised. He is dishonest and will increase taxes for people who are single or who are retired. He will increase taxes for small business owners. His tax increases will hurt farmers, small businesses, retirees and singles.
Don't trust Obama who has a Muslim name and who lived in a Muslim country and who has voted 94 times to raise taxes.
10-14-2008 @ 11:29AM
MaryLou Michelin said...
I believe things were a lot better before the Democrats took over Congress. Nearly two years ago- the gas was cheaper and as far as I am concerned, compared to other countries still a bargain. Employment was fine. The Market reached 12000. My finances were growing. Now what- Democrats sent it all down the tube. Yes, Iwant change, back to where President Bush had us , before the Democrats took over.
10-14-2008 @ 12:05PM
Mike said...
When has happened to the Republican party? Most of the people making pro Bush comments can't even string a sentence together. My parents always said I would eventually become a Republican because I am so financially conservative but I think the Republican party they were talking about is long gone. They have run up almost the entire federal budget deficit by themselves and keep making the same supply side mistakes in setting fiscal policy. Heck even Reagans financial team said they didn't know if supply side economics would work they just supported the theory as it drastically lowered tax rates on for the wealthy. Well I think we all know how well trickle down economics has worked. It is time to build up the middle class again so everyone benefits. Vote Democrat for fiscal responsibility!!
10-14-2008 @ 12:29PM
bill said...
congress and the senate blame wall street. hello where are all of their oversite committes? They even have committes to protect the SPOTTED OWL. Hey who's more important us or owls?
10-14-2008 @ 12:48PM
Sheldon L said...
1) Clinton promoted lending for home ownership and allowed banks to also become investment houses.
2) Greenspan lowered interest rates to 1% and left them there too long trying to avoid a severe recession after the stock market bubble burst.
3) The SEC loosened reserve requirements and permitted extreme leverage as well.
4) Banks went nuts lending to anyone and everyone while investment banks went nuts leveraging.
5) People went nuts buying what they could not afford and extending home equity credit lines too.
6) Investment banks and ratings agencies colluded to create diabolical derivatives CDO's SIV's ALT-A's etc that were snapped up by institutions believing the Triple A ratings.
7) Individual and institutional credit extend to the max with rising rates and mark-to-market accounting burst the bubble.
8) Bank and government leadership in denial too the last second forced to swallow their pride and take extreme measures before civilization as we know it collapses in a wasteland of lost faith.
Items 3 thru 8 under Bush's watch and ignorance. Plus tax cuts, war, and pride pushed deficits to the highest levels ever. As a fiscal conservative I would say Bush is not the only culprit just the "leading" culprit. Maybe the lack of leadership culprit.
10-14-2008 @ 12:48PM
gumbo koontz said...
We got in this big fine mess simply because we have so many more billionaires and mutlimillioinaires and mere millionaires walkinig around without any ideas of how to spend their money..... They dont want to be taxed, fine, do they mean they dont want to spend the money, also?? We are laboring under the load of mulit trillion idle dollars somwhere in the Swiss Alps! They still want more and more money and profits from us to hide in the Swiss Alps! They are just filthy rich fools!
10-14-2008 @ 12:50PM
brettz3e@aol.com said...
If many more of us are as austute investors or shoppers as those rich filthy fools sitting on hoards of cash, boy, they would be in trouble!! Our government has no choice but to tax them and spend money for them... They may as well poke forks in thier eyes!!
10-14-2008 @ 12:51PM
gumbo koontz said...
If many more of us are as austute investors or shoppers as those rich filthy fools sitting on hoards of cash, boy, they would be in trouble!! Our government has no choice but to tax them and spend money for them... They may as well poke forks in thier eyes!!
10-14-2008 @ 12:53PM
brettze@aol.com said...
Maybe the super rich is saving up for a great space civilization to be built sometimes this centruy that will costs trillions and trillions... There will probalby be only one million people living up in the space and the rest of us will be forgotten and thrown to the wolves..
10-14-2008 @ 12:57PM
Sheldon L said...
Gumbo/Brett,
You do not get it. Trillions of phantom dollars have disappeared. They never existed. They were make believe. We were pretending things were worth more than they actually were.
Now the governments of the world are filling the gap with a different kind of Phantom dollars.
10-14-2008 @ 2:19PM
Tom Parrish said...
It seems to me that you should have enough experiance to know that this is not the fault of the President. He did not institute the risky loans that resulted in this mess. He was not even in office when the government was pressing for "home ownership".
Congress, the banks and stupid investment pros such as yourself deserve the majority of the blame along with the idiots who signed for loans that they did not understand.
10-14-2008 @ 3:59PM
gumbo koontz said...
Sheldon
You seems to forget that real money are traded on stocks everyday at various prices. They are not phantom money... many shares are bought at the top, middle and low and every number in between. they are real money... now with all stock prices crashed ... the real money are pocketed somewhere... Now they are hoping that we will star all over again from the lows... This is a pickpocket of Ponzi scale!!
10-14-2008 @ 4:03PM
gumbo koontz said...
All that money swipes was possbile because no stock certificates was ever issued to shareholders...Stock certificates can be electroinic and obtainable online, but brokers have no interest in that as it is not profitable for them.. Brokers want to play with shareholders money for themselves as well as lending long shares to short sellers on the side... Stock certificates will prevent brokers from lending shares to short sellers.. Why?? you will see that your 100 GE shares on your broker statement will disappear when you get a stock certificate.. your broker will no longer have your 100 GE shares to fool around with ... You will be free to go to different broker to sell your 100 GE shares... without having to open an account.. Lack of stock certificates gave too much freedom to MBAs and drunk brokers and traders!!!