The US markets did have a furious rally, rising 11% on major indexes. Overnight, Japan's Nikkei was up over 14%. The move to put money into banks and credit markets appears to be working.
But, don't forget the recession, which many economists see lasting longer than any downturn since 1974. Unemployment went to nearly 9% then. That is about 50% higher than the current 6.1% rate.
Yesterday, General Motors Corporation (NYSE:GM) said it would cut production more. Who would be surprised if the auto industry cut more jobs? The financial sector has lost tens of thousand of jobs, and as bank mergers go through, that is likely to go up sharply.
If there is on element which could pull the stock market back down, it is the realization that the economy is getting much, much worse and that corporate earnings will suffer accordingly.
A new wave of data about the economy will be coming soon. According to The Wall Street Journal, "The biggest data point is: the Census Bureau's retail sales report for September, on Wednesday. Economists expect sales tumbled for the third straight month, led by abysmal auto sales."
Investors who pour their money back into the market now, do so at their own peril. Don't forget the recession.
Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.
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