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Earnings preview: eBay all the way?

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Famed online auction platform eBay (NASDAQ: EBAY), whose Internet colleagues include Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN), Google (NASDAQ: GOOG), and Yahoo! (NASDAQ: YHOO), will be reporting earnings for the third quarter on Wednesday after the market closes up shop. What should shareholders expect from the company?

Well, according to data posted by Trey Thoelcke, shareholders shouldn't expect much. While the top line is expected to rise by double digits (around 13%) to $2.1 billion, nothing is really cooking in terms of the bottom line. The call is for $0.41 per share. eBay booked $0.41 per share in the year earlier period. As you can see, that's a 0% growth rate, and that's never good (well, unless you're a financial company, in which case that's actually great). However, there is one silver lining to the earnings story for shareholders. If you take a look at past earnings data, you'll notice that eBay has a snazzy reputation for beating estimates issued by analysts. So, I'd be willing to bet we'll see an easy beat this week.

As to whether or not this particular stock will rally upon such news, that's difficult to say. If Monday's rallying sentiment makes another visit on Wednesday, then I'd say eBay could be an interesting earnings trade, mostly because it isn't far from its 52-week low. Unfortunately, I think any rally that we get in the market right now is not to be trusted. It just can't be. Profit-taking is always going to be waiting to sap the power out of any rally, simply because we know the economy isn't going to be great for many months to come. So, even though I like the technical set-up to some degree vis a vis eBay's earnings-beating history, I personally wouldn't be buying. For me to trust any rally, I'd need to see some confirmations and additional up days.

Speaking of the economy, it will be interesting to see what eBay's numbers tell us about the economy and where the company might be heading in terms of its fundamentals. One would figure that there will be a lot of people looking to sell stuff on eBay to raise some cash, and a lot of buyers scouring the platform looking for bargains to save money.

Another thing to look for will be growth in cash flow. (You can get last quarter's numbers by clicking the appropriate link at this page, which takes you to a pdf file). Net cash from operations increased 23% for the six-month time period. I would think that the trend will continue (i.e., cash flow will increase, although not necessarily by that high of a percentage, since earnings may be flat) and that there won't be too much of a surprise. How much stock will management have repurchased? Hopefully, enough to show its confidence in the eBay business model. Last quarter, the company took back 19 million shares. Will it have perceived the low price on its stock as a good value? That's something to watch. PayPal has also been performing, and I think shareholders will receive more good news on that segment.

I really don't expect any dire surprises during the quarter, and I think eBay's stock is cheap. Again, though, I'm not calling for an earnings trade here. The risk/reward just doesn't feel right to me in this case given the volatility we've seen. I have been like a broken record in terms of my reticence for earnings trades, but I just think you've got to be very careful. Of course, everyone knows to be careful, that's obvious, but it never hurts to issue reminders when it comes to money.

Disclosure: I don't own any company mentioned; positions can change at any time.

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Last updated: November 25, 2009: 08:39 PM

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