Supervalu (NYSE: SVU), whose competitors include Kroger (NYSE: KR), Safeway (NYSE: SWY), and Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT), reported results for its fiscal second quarter. Net sales unfortunately didn't budge much at all. They came in essentially flat at $10.2 billion. Earnings per share on an adjusted basis were $0.61. According to this article, the expectations were for $0.69 per share. So, as can be seen, Supervalu lost the analyst-expectations game by a wide margin. Last year's adjusted earnings were $0.64 per share. Not only are those numbers disappointing, but comps saw a decrease of over 1%. And the gross margin suffered as well.
So, we have an earnings miss, flat revenue growth, and a decline in the bottom line. What does all that add up to in terms of market reaction? The stock sees a bid. At the time I began writing this piece, it was up 2.5%. As I found with Kroger, the market may be looking at supermarket businesses as defensive plays. Of course, at the time I covered Kroger, that company's numbers were a lot better than Supervalu's.
However, last time I checked the stock before sending this piece in, it was becoming more volatile along with the market, moving from green to red in quick succession. Given the weak data, I can't say that I'd be considering Supervalu right now. It is true that people will continue to shop at supermarkets even during economic downturns, but I'd rather look at something the supermarket sells as opposed to the supermarket itself to get defensive. I'd rather align my portfolio with the stronger brand equity of perhaps a Kraft (NYSE: KFT) or a Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG) than a Supervalu.
Disclosure: I don't own any company mentioned; positions can change at any time.











Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
10-14-2008 @ 7:53PM
Zack said...
I see this company up close and they are a mess. They can't swallow Albertsons. Money is 'made' by hiking slotting fees by 20% recently and also they are sending thousands of jobs to India where they recently opened up a building designed to house thousands of 'replacement' Indians. What's Supervalu's next excuse going to be when they miss their numbers?
11-11-2008 @ 1:51AM
todd said...
Safeway has told non union employee's their benefits will be reduced asap. Management that has high senority will be eliminated. The end is near for this company