Nothing moves without housing and housing is not moving


The proposition that housing drives the economy is a pretty old and well-articulated theory. Housing values underlie the value of many of the mortgage-related paper held by financial firms. Falling home values have undermined consumer access to credit and people have been pushed out on the streets due to foreclosures.

Some economists say that there are hopeful signs housing will start to recover. The extra liquidity that the Treasury is putting into banks will improve mortgage lending. That theory is actually deeply flawed. Paulson can give the banks money, but he cannot force them to lend it. Big financial firms are just as likely, if not more likely, to keep the cash to use against future losses. Those losses may come due to mortgage problems. It is a perverse circle which may not be broken soon.



Of course, the strongest reason for home values to recover is that houses have gotten so cheap that buying them is becoming irresistible. Even if that is to some extent true, many consumers do not want to be the first ones back into the home market just to watch it drop another 10%.

For the short term, housing is slated to get much worse. That means, of course, that if it outperforms expectations, it could cause a real market rally.

According to The Wall Street Journal, "September housing starts are expected to slip to an 880,000-unit annual rate from 895,000 in August." That is not a massive drop. It is actually reasonable in light of how bad things have been. There will be dancing in the street if the figures are better.

Housing may be about to make a bottom.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

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