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Was the Red Sox comeback just another bear rally?

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Without a hint of irony, the Associated Press reported that "Trailing by seven runs with seven outs left in their season, the Red Sox pulled off the biggest postseason rally since 1929. Boston staved off elimination in the AL championship series with an 8-7 victory over the Tampa Bay Rays on Thursday night when J.D. Drew singled home the winning run with two outs in the ninth."

That's right: in the midst of a market meltdown, the Red Sox pulled off the greatest comeback in playoff history since 1929, and they did it on October 16th, just 13 days before the anniversary of Black Tuesday. Coincidence? Who knows?

But given that there are a lot of people making predictions about the future of the market -- and none of them really know what they're talking about -- I'm proposing a new method. If the Red Sox come back to win the next two games and shock the Tampa Bay Rays out of their first ALCS title, then the comeback is real -- and the markets have bottomed.

But if the Red Sox break their fans hearts by losing after such a glorious comeback, then we'll have to chalk the market's modest gains of the past week up to a bear rally -- sucking in optimists only to destroy still more wealth.

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DJIA+30.6910,464.40
NASDAQ+6.872,176.05
S&P 500+4.981,110.63

Last updated: November 26, 2009: 08:38 AM

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