Way Off Wall Street: Retail is the next economic train wreck; expect a Black Friday bust

Just in case the conglomeration of all those realities isn't enough to spoil your day, I have one more good slap in the head for you: I believe the great retail train wreck is coming. Already, the retail meltdown has started, with retail sales figures dropping way more than expected in September. Linens 'n Things has announced that it is pulling the plug. Certainly, this is just the beginning.

Based on my informal interviews with friends, family and associates, I have felt for a couple of months that this will be, "the year that Christmas died." I declared that as my prediction behind the scenes and now I've made it public. What I mean is that the commercialized version of Christmas that we've all become so familiar with -- the excess of gifts, the onslaught of toys, the newly created pits of personal debt -- aren't likely to occur this year, much to the chagrin of retailers and credit card issuers.

My reasoning for making this declaration is simple. The people I know and talk to have committed to having very different Thanksgiving and Christmas celebrations this year. They are cutting back on their discretionary spending and vowing to divorce holiday celebrations from crass commercialism.

Will shoppers show up on Black Friday? I think the first day we'll see real evidence of my theory is on Black Friday, the day after Thanksgiving. That's the day many, if not most, retailers typically break into the black -- and when holiday shopping begins in earnest. But I think there will be a crushing blow to retailers this year when that magic shopping day essentially doesn't happen and shoppers stay home.

I predict many retailers will end 2008 very deep in the red. Retail industry analysts are reporting increasing inventories on the one hand, while reporting declining sales on the other. What this means is that the retail sector has spent money on inventory (or more likely, borrowed money to buy inventory), which common sense is telling me they won't be able to sell. In my opinion, the retail sector is headed directly for a very big and ugly brick wall.

That means that in Q1 2009 I think we will witness the demise of some long-standing retail names. I can't really predict who that will be, but one name seems obvious: I expect to see a fracturing and sell-off of Sears Corp. (NASDAQ: SHLD). If that happens, I do expect that the Sears name will continue on behind its Kenmore and Craftsman brand lines, but I'm expecting to see Sears anchor stores begin to disappear. No, I don't have a three-pound spreadsheet analysis to back up this theory. I'm telling you what I expect, based on what I see and hear at ground level. I also expect to see a staggering number of high-end retailers bite the dust.

The retail shock of 2009 shall begin the next cycle of this recession. Button up your coats, and pull down your hats because it's going to get mighty cold in the retail sector come January. That is of course, unless Santa Claus drops a huge load of greenbacks into the stockings of all the regular folks a few weeks prior to the arrival of Christmas. Unfortunately though, in light of the way things are going, I just don't believe that's going to happen.

Gary Sattler, lives in Wisconsin and works in manufacturing by day, and blogs by night.