Ericsson is rallying, but I'm not joining in


Telefonaktiebolaget LM Ericsson (ADR) (NASDAQ: ERIC), a telecom-related business whose colleagues include Alcatel-Lucent (NYSE: ALU) and Cisco Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ: CSCO), reported earnings for the third quarter. And, unless I miss my guess, the market liked what it saw. As I write this, shares are up over 15%, and the trading volume is high. So, what's going on here?

Well, according to this source, revenue and profit for the quarter went beyond the expectations of analysts. The top line soared 13%. Nothing wrong with that. The bottom line, however, went down 28%, even though it exceeded what was expected. And then there was the gross margin improvement. A lot of times that can work wonders for a company's shares. Gross margin went from 35.6% to 37%. Wall Street was impressed.

Now, this is all well and good, but am I a buyer of Ericsson after the report? No. There are a few things to consider here. First, the global economy is a mess. Second, statements made by management in terms of the near future indicate a cautious stance. Third, there's no way I'm buying a stock that just rallied by a double-digit percentage in this market. Especially not a tech stock. There are harder ways to lose money. The 52-week low on the ADR's is about $6 per share, and I can easily see this one revisiting that level as we continue to get news on the economy throughout the quarter. Obviously, many investors out there disagree with me. But this is not the time to play momentum trader, in my opinion. I'm happy to sit on the sidelines in this case, even if I turn out to be wrong.

Disclosure: I don't own any company mentioned; positions can change without notice.

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Last updated: February 12, 2012: 03:16 PM

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