I thought Oliver Stone's cinematic treatment of George W. Bush, simply titled W., was going to be the number-one film over the weekend at domestic theaters. According to Boxofficemojo, it wasn't. The movie, distributed by Lions Gate Entertainment (NYSE: LGF), came in fourth place with an estimated $10.5 million take. Truth be told, I forgot that Mark Wahlberg's Max Payne came out this weekend as well. I guess that would give Stone some tough competition, to be sure. That project, which came to the market courtesy of News Corp. (NYSE: NWS), took the top spot with $18 million. Disney's (NYSE: DIS) Beverly Hills Chihuahua and News Corp.'s The Secret Life of Bees came in second and third, respectively. Actually, those two films, plus W., had close box-office estimates at the time of this writing, so it is conceivable the ranking order could change slightly depending on what final stats reveal.
Even though Stone didn't succeed this weekend in terms of the multiplex rankings, shareholders of Lions Gate can appreciate one internal metric related to this box-office story. W.'s per-theater average in terms of dollars was similar to Max Payne's. The former's average was calculated to be roughly $5,200 per theater, while the latter's was about $5,330 per location (again, this is as of the estimates available to me at the time of this writing). Also, W.'s average beat Chihuahua's. So, you have to wonder what the rankings would have been like had the movie opened in more theaters. Coming in fifth place, by the way, is Viacom's (NYSE: VIA) Eagle Eye. That's grossed a decent $80 million so far. I don't think it will hit $100 million, but it should get close.
I'll tell you, Lions Gate's stock is pretty cheap. Have you been following the price action? It's been volatile, as you obviously would have guessed, and it closed at $6.95 per share on Friday, having risen 7% during that session, perhaps in anticipation of the W. opening. I've been keeping my eye on the stock and have said in the past that it's an interesting trading idea below $9 per share. Obviously, that thesis has changed since current market sentiment seems to be as rational as the mind of The Joker, but if Lions Gate breaks its 52-week low of $5.59, then I'll definitely have to strongly consider it ahead of Saw V, which is set to open next weekend. Of course, I'll be very, very careful about pulling the trigger, and will consider many things before buying. Like the strong possibility that sentiment will drop even further and take Lions Gate down to low single-digit levels. Don't think it can't happen. That would be even scarier than surviving a jigsaw trap (well, not really, but you know what I mean).
Disclosure: I own Disney; positions can change at any time.










