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Will Apple surprise when it reports earnings?

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What are Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) numbers going to be like when it reports its fourth quarter results Tuesday after the close? That's the question many are asking as profit takers vie with bargain hunters in a roller coaster market.

Analysts on average expect Apple to post a profit of $1.11 a share, up from $1.01 in the year-ago quarter, on a 30% revenue growth to $8.05 billion. For the current quarter, analysts expect earnings to decline to $1.66 a share from $1.76 a year earlier, with sales increasing 10% to $10.6 billion.

Usually, though, the Street expects Apple to beat expectations by a nice margin, so could Apple deliver tomorrow? Well, according to NPD, a market research company, Mac unit sales in September were up 19% year-over-year. From NPD's data, Apple may have shipped between 2.7 million and 2.8 million Macs during the quarter and sold 11 million iPods -- a 7% increase. Both numbers are ahead of what is anticipated. Add to the mix the iPhone 3G released in July, as well as other more recent product launches, and Apple most likely will beat expectations.

But will it be enough to satisfy investors? Apple stock has already declined 50% year-to-date due to macro-economic concerns, but so far sales of Apple products have actually held up pretty well. So well, in fact, that some view it as a gauge for consumer confidence -- has confidence been shaken that much that even Apple sales have started to suffer?

Many, then, will focus more than anything on Apple's estimates for the current quarter and how it's been affected, or may be affected by the economic downturn.

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Last updated: November 27, 2009: 11:52 AM

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