McDonald's (NYSE: MCD), which competes with Burger King (NYSE: BKC), Wendy's/Arby's Group (NYSE: WEN), and Yum! Brands (NYSE: YUM), will be reporting earnings for the third quarter tomorrow. I have a feeling many shareholders will be resting easy this week. I don't think McDonald's will have a big earnings miss.
According to Earnings.com, Mickey D's should earn 97 cents per share. If management can meet those expectations, that's earnings growth of about 17%. That's tasty in this market. Here's the kicker: McDonald's beat earnings estimates the last two quarters by wide margins. Will the company do the same thing this week? I think there's a decent chance it will. Even though there's a bear market going on, gas prices have been dropping, and you figure that has to be good for the drive-thru. Plus, there's that affordable-menu option that has driven a lot of brand equity over the last several years for the fast-food giant. I'm sure many patrons appreciate that in a tough period.
Besides earnings, investors will focus on same-store sales. That metric is one of the best indicators of a company that is made up of many locations. It's really no different than retailing. I'll be interested to see how the domestic market is faring compared to the international markets. Another thing I'll be interested in seeing is how inflation is affecting Ronald and his empire. We all know that Ronnie is a clown who likes to bestow happiness among all his customers, but reality likes to ruin parades every now and then. In this case, McDonald's has to keep a constant eye on the issue of pricing.
Back in August, Douglas McIntyre posted this piece about potential price increases at the chain. Management stated that there has to be a balance between growth and pricing, and that it wouldn't initiate any pricing strategies that would impact traffic levels. It's good that the powers that be are cautious when it comes to this issue, but at the same time, if price increases can be passed off, then they could serve as a useful tool for ensuring that the bottom line remains on a healthy trend. Success in this area can be tricky, as the quality of the margins hangs in the balance. The brand power of McDonald's has to be worth something, though, so experimentation is requisite in this case; after all, those tasty fries are worth some kind of premium, aren't they?
I'll be interested in the little details, of course, such as how many shares have been repurchased during the quarter (last quarter, McDonald's bought back 13.3 million shares, according to this press release) and what menu items have been driving business. And then I'd like to find out what management's outlook is for commodity costs and any unique promotions they may have in store to keep the traffic coming to the golden arches.
Now, am I interested in trading McDonald's ahead of the earnings? As a rule, I've been avoiding earnings trades. They're just too risky in this climate. However, I think McDonald's might make for an interesting trade if it pulled back substantially before the report. You must, of course, perform your own due diligence and decide for yourself if the stock is a buy ahead of the earnings. All I'm saying is I think McDonald's might issue some good numbers. Still, we won't know until Wednesday, so traders -- be careful!
Disclosure: I don't own any company mentioned; positions can change at any time.











Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
10-21-2008 @ 1:19PM
shaun said...
I definitely don't think Mickey D's has anything to worry about regarding a big earnings miss. Sentiment is growing stronger for MCD (http://www.predictwallstreet.com/forecast.aspx?symbol=MCD)and even though the price has been fluctuating, I think the company will hold strong during these economic times. There like the Wal-Mart of fast food.
10-23-2008 @ 10:00AM
Laty Walker said...
I think McDonalds is doing a wonderful job with their menu. I personally, love the buns, someone was saying needed to be different. They have a sweetness about them when they are toasted. As for my chlildren and grandchildren, they will know the the wonderful fast food at McDonalds just as I did growing up. The opportunities that young people have working for them is great. Traveling all over the world and seeing the golden arches is great too! In case you miss home or just want a hamburger, it is nice to be able to find a McDonalds almost everywhere. Keep on making us happy and saving us time and work in the kitchen McDonalds, a mother of four who you helped many times!!