Slowdown at Netflix goes beyond the economy


Netflix (NASDAQ: NFLX) released its third quarter results yesterday, and things looked pretty good: net income up 30%, revenue up 16%, subscriber-acquisition costs down 15%, and the rate of subscriber cancellations remained flat.

But the company cut its revenue forecast, and net subscriber additions are down 30% so far for October compared to last year. CEO Reed Hasting said (subscription required) that "Since July, conditions have deteriorated markedly. It now appears that there will be continued growth for Netflix, but not as fast as last year." He added that "The state of the economy could explain this modest headwind."

I'm not so sure. Given that watching DVDs at home is a lot less expensive than many other forms of entertainment, it should be somewhat immune to economic woes. In an economy as weak as this one, any struggling company will be quick to blame its woes on the economy. Sometimes that's the case but, often, there are more serious issues that won't be solved by a macroeconomic upturn.

In the long run, it's hard to see what gets investors so excited about Netflix. The growth appears to be slowing, even with a price/earnings ratio of 20 -- which is pretty high in this market.

Then there's the problem of the long-term outlook for the company's business model: any slowdown in growth should be viewed with great caution by investors. As Jim Chanos described Netflix: "Consider the concept of having little old ladies in warehouses stuffing envelopes with DVDs. That might be a business for the next two or three years, but then it won't work. Why anyone would pay twenty-seven times earnings for that is beyond me."

Maybe Mr. Hastings can reinvent the company for long-term prosperity -- they're certainly investing aggressively in online delivery of movies -- but they're still vulnerable to a wave of competitors in that new field. And there's a distinct possibility that one day Netflix will be just as irrelevant as Blockbuster (NYSE: BBI).

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