TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says this market is whipping around so fast that just keeping up is a challenge. Editor's note: Jim Cramer will present his 2009 stock outlook for the first time at TheStreet.com Investment Conference on Saturday, Oct. 25. Limited seating; act now.
How hard is it? Do you know I wrote a piece at 2:45 yesterday afternoon, all set to talk about how the resilience of the market just spooks me given we didn't know Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) (Cramer's Take) and we had the oils up with the oil futures? We were shrugging off Latin America, which was basically crushed off of Argentina's confiscation. There was nothing going right and yet the futures wouldn't quit.
I then met with my staff at CNBC and chatted with David Faber, a good friend of mine, about what's going on behind the scenes with the credit market.
I put the market on hold and focused on him and on my questions for Nucor (NYSE: NUE) (Cramer's Take). And in 30 minutes the piece was worthless.
Today I come in and the futures are down, there is no demand for oil, a farm equipment article is a disaster in The Wall Street Journal and I know that Latin America was holding up ag, but that could be perilous now that Argentina has gone Allende on us, and the commodity trade has just gone totally south.
But tech, which wrecked us, could get total new life from Apple, which really was good, except iPhone was bad, which then again means that the wireless plays, endlessly beaten down, get beaten down again today.
To which I say, OK, with us still minus-8 on the Oscillator, that persistent bid will be there and the banks are still getting a ton of money in them.
In other words, another day where conviction melts from the get-go.
The only thing that is working, the only thing, is dividends. Which means watch Chevron (NYSE: CVX) (Cramer's Take). Whenever that yield gets to 4 and change, the stock bounces.
Oh, and needless to say, you never saw that piece. It's dead. A relic, a reminder that this remains the most treacherous market I have ever seen. I know that the Nazz 2000-2003 scenario seems to be lurking, but as Helene says, that April of 2000 really made you feel the worst was over.
Just like yesterday after the big 400 day, where the pattern of little or no follow-through at last seemed broken.
Random musings: Apple's tough; it certainly has the capability of being up 10, even in a bad tape, especially because it is now the lone tech stock that stands out, so will be a magnet for money.
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Jim Cramer is a director and co-founder of TheStreet.com. He contributes daily market commentary for TheStreet.com's sites and serves as an adviser to the company's CEO. At the time of publication, Cramer was long Chevron.











Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
10-22-2008 @ 9:56AM
Beltway Greg said...
"Except IPhone which was bad?" Bad for whom RIMM? Anyway, JP Morgan just issued the most idiotic downgrade in history. They now have Apple listed at what I must assume is a twelve-month target of $105. Here's the deal kids, $1 million straight up that Apple finishes 2009 above, far above $105 north of $150. Do these people actually still have jobs? Mr. Dimon give me a call.
Beltway Greg
10-22-2008 @ 1:46PM
Beachpaul said...
APPL will excel? My wife and daughter think it's products (desktop, notebooks, ipods, etc,) are "can't live without." They even go to Sunday morning classes at the APPL store. I don't get it. It wasn't all that long ago their stock was $18. GLW was $8. They are heading back that way. So will APPL. They filled the "tweener market" with the ipod and the $.99 song, a vacuum created by the Record Labels, when they went digital and doubled the old analog price to an unsustainable,suicidal price, that killed the album format as the primary distribution platform. The "tweener" market needs constant "new", the "next", big thing. Like the music biz, stock prices got inflated by "the next big thing of no real value" reason. It was all a virtual dream, unless of course, you didn't invest for the long term.
10-22-2008 @ 2:40PM
Beltway Greg said...
Beachpaul. You don't get it and that really says it all. Do you really think that only tweens are buying Apple products? They go to classes at the Apple store? No doubt you're acquainted with dwell time in retail settings? Music companies killed themselves by ripping off the artists. John Cougar Mellencamp said that Chevy was a far better record company than his record company ever was. Despite what Kid Rock and ACDC think Apple saved the ground they walk on and albums are a luxury for those artists that recorded music that worked in that format but even many of those folks became fat and lazy and put only one or two decent songs on a record.
Pink Floyd's the Wall worked but many of their other releases required a tab of acid and earphones which was probably the point altogether.
And btw, how many kids turn 13 every year? Get it now don't you? Shine on you crazy diamond. And by the way, which one's Pink?
Beltway Greg
10-22-2008 @ 4:20PM
beachpaul said...
Greg, I enjoy your insights. APPL is a design studio. Steve Jobs is the Ralph Lauren of computers. Ipod, mp3, what's cheaper? APPL charges triple for the same hardware that Dell sells. Colors add value to the computer? Sleekness? It's all rock n' roll! Three chords and the truth. My wife teaches middle school, I understand her attraction to it. But, Greg, It's a nail salon, about as useful as a diamond. Love ya!
10-22-2008 @ 11:20PM
smac said...
Beachpaul...have you ever even used a mac? It's not the hardware you douchebag it's the software.....try it, you'll see. Ever heard of the iPhone???? Nobody can do what Apple is doing right now...and when they do, Apple will be on to the next thing....that everyone will again try to copy and so on....
10-23-2008 @ 11:58AM
Beltway Greg said...
Beachpaul, doth I detect a individual who missed out on two, count them two, monster runs by Apple in one year? Oh well. APPL is a design studio. I assume you purchased the cheapest house, drive a used Yugo, dress your child in rags, and married an ugly woman because she was less likely to leave you? No. Now don't get mad. I know the answer to all three. And I'm certain you're a good person who loves beautiful things and who sits alone a night with a good scotch and listens to Caruso on LPs. Actually, maybe that's me. Apple's software and what is bundled in the machines more than makes up for the premium which, in many instances, really isn't all that much. I've had all types of PCs and Apple is far and away the best in so many areas. I still have my original IMac at my feet. I brought it home and loved it so much that I bought some of the stock and then more and more and more. Dell sells tons of gadgets a day but can hardly service one. And here's a shocker, despite years of constant use my Apple laptops and desktops are like Keith Richards. (Actually, they're much prettier.) Anyway, the real deal here is that Apple is so much more than a simple computer maker. The cheapest laptop? It's called an IPhone.
McDonald's serves far more meals a day than Chez 5 Star in your town and where would you rather eat?
And dude, last time I checked, Ralph Lauren was doing pretty well. Seems like a good Jew understood WASPS far better than they understood themselves.
Shalom.
Beltway Greg
10-29-2008 @ 3:02PM
Beltway Greg said...
Sound the trumpets, we've reached JPM's target price for the next twelve months.
Beltway Greg