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Has Boeing (BA) bottomed out?

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Since its stock peaked in September 2007 at $105, Boeing Inc. (NYSE: BA) has lost 59% of its value. It has misfired on multiple fronts: it was unable to meet its original delivery schedule for a new aircraft, the 787; it lost a $35 billion bid to build an airborne refueling tanker which was canceled due to irregularities and is scheduled to be rebid next year; and it's suffering through a strike of its 27,000-member machinists union that began in early September.

Today Boeing announced a big decline in earnings. Specifically, Boeing net income dropped 38% to 96 cents a share -- two cents below analysts' expectations. And its revenues fell 7% to $15.29 billion, slightly higher than the $14.61 billion analysts had expected. The strike has delayed deliveries significantly. Without the strike, Boeing would have shipped 119 planes during the quarter, but ended up with 35 fewer than planned.

Are Boeing's woes at their bottom? It is scheduled to go back to the negotiating table tomorrow, but it is unclear whether either side will budge. Meanwhile, Boeing had expected to start delivering its 787 in the third quarter of 2009; however, meeting that deadline now appears uncertain. Boeing stock is down 7.8% today, suggesting that analysts are deeply disappointed.

For investors, the best hope is that today marks a bottom for the stock that will recover should Boeing agree to a reasonable settlement with its machinists. Or the machinists could lead Boeing's engineers into another costly strike.

Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter. Portfolio will publish his book about Boeing, You Can't Order Change: Lessons From Jim McNerney's Turnaround at Boeing, in December 2008. He has no financial interest in Boeing securities.

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Last updated: July 06, 2009: 02:12 PM

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