With the above as background, Intrade.com's futures for the 2008 U.S. presidential election currently predict a decisive victory for U.S. Sen. Barack Obama, D-Illinois, over U.S. Sen. John McCain, R-Arizona.
InTrade's Realtime Electoral Vote Predictor is projecting an electoral college vote total of: Obama 364, McCain, 174. A candidate needs 270 electoral votes to win the presidency.
Futures for Obama win are high
Futures on an Obama win are at 86.4. The 86.4 level means that the market predicts there is an 86.4% chance of this event happening. All Intrade markets trade between 0 and 100.
Futures on a McCain win are at 14.4, signaling that the market believes there's a 14.4% of McCain winning the election.
Each point is worth 10 cents. Therefore, if you bought one Barack Obama contract at 86.4 and he wins the election, the contract will close, or settle, at 100 and your profit will be 13.6 points at 10 cents each, or $1.36. On the other hand, if Obama loses the election, the contract with settle at 0 and your loss would be 86.4 points, or $8.64.
Political Analysis: InTrade's vote predictor is not rooted in survey research (polls), but their electoral map by state mirrors current vote projections by the major polling organizations and media outlets.
In the swing states, InTrade sees Obama leading in Pennsylvania, Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, Missouri, Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada, and Florida.
Even so, about two weeks remain until Election Day, November 4, and scholars and political analysts agree that a campaign/election can change considerably during that span.
Note: Perform your own do diligence before deciding whether to buy a futures contract.
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