Minyanville contributor Quint Tatro dares to share the kind of keen insight and actionable information you won't find in any prospectus. For more original thought, visit www.minyanville.com.

Despite the fact that just about every chart out there screams bear market and downtrend, at this juncture I can't justify adding new shorts. It feels like a trap in that the steepness of the recent decline could eventually usher in a snapper that would rip the heads off new shorts so rather than venture into that area, I'll avoid it altogether. The question is, however, whether or not to venture in and with the most recent slide, I'll admit it is rather tempting.

When I look at commodity names in particular, the damage that has been done is breathtaking. It seemed like just weeks ago Freeport (NYSE: FCX) was trading in the triple digits while Schlumberger (NYSE: SLB) flirted with $90 or so. Wait a second, it WAS just a few weeks ago. Geesh.

I am of the camp that starting to nibble into the fear that exists is prudent if and only if you have already protected capital along the way, and fully realize you can emerge with a few nicks.

My ETF of choice is the ProShares Ultra O&G (AMEX: DIG) which like so many other averages yesterday, held its most recent uptrend line but has yet to put in a higher high. The risk-reward with a stop below the October 10 lows seems appropriate to me, so I have taken a stab. I will slowly wade in and sell into strength should it eventually come.