Imagine this: OPEC may not cut production much

There is a lot of debate among OPEC members about how much to cut production. Most of the talk is about a chop of one million barrels a day from the current 32 million barrels shipped.

The conventional wisdom is that the recession in the West is so bad and China's demand is falling so fast that the relatively modest cut may not push prices up and move more money into the treasuries of the cartel countries.

According to The Wall Street Journal, "At a time when petroleum demand is off sharply in the U.S. and other industrialized countries, some see global oil demand falling this year for the first time in decades." Some members of OPEC would like a huge cut in the hope that it will push oil back to $100.

There is another option and it is radical, but that does not mean it would not work. Don't cut at all.

If the recession becomes very deep, as it appears it will, anything that can be done to help a recovery is likely to help oil demand more than an onerous cut that could drive oil higher by 50%. That action could take a bad economic situation and make it much worse.

In other words, OPEC could offer one of the most important solutions to the economic problem by keeping supply as it is and taking a hit for a fairly short time. Most of the members have the money to wait for the GDP of the West to start to move up again. When that happens, oil prices will rise on their own. The cartel may get better long term financial results that way.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 24/7 Wall St.