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Will AIG run low on money again? It's burning through its $123 billion fast

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burning moneyAIG (NYSE: AIG) is borrowing even more money from the Federal government. As of October 23, it had tapped into $90 billion of the $123 billion the government has made available. The insurance giant was set up with the massive credit line on concerns that if it fails, it could bring the global financial and credit system down with it.

According to The Wall Street Journal, the weekly total of AIG's draw-down remains large. "The new total is $7.4 billion, or nearly 9%, more than AIG had tapped as of a week earlier," the paper said. On Oct. 22, AIG's chief executive said the current bailout loan might not be enough.

Since it is a real possibility that the amount of capital available to AIG may be inadequate, the important question to ask now is, what happens if AIG needs more money?

For starters, common shareholders will probably see the value of their holdings go to zero. AIG's shares are already down to under $2 a share -- a sign traders think it will go bankrupt -- compared to a 52-week high of $64.25 (a full year ago). The government owns 80% of the firm now. For people in the stock, it is probably a good time to take whatever money you have left and run.

The more difficult question is how far does the government go in providing funds? The answer is that the amount of capital may have to go much higher. The credit crisis is not getting better. AIG's credit derivative swaps and mortgage-backed paper are falling in value almost every day. If the government still believes that propping up AIG is the key to averting a true global financial meltdown, it will have to extend more credit to the company.

Economists could debate whether AIG had to be saved. But now that the government has set itself up as a savior, it can hardly back down. If AIG were to go bankrupt it could spark a catastrophe which might be bigger than the one caused by the failure of Lehman. That's a risk the country can't take right now.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 24/7 Wall St.

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Last updated: July 04, 2009: 03:17 PM

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