As has happened so many times in the last several weeks, the global markets have plunged while Americans slept. But the reason for the plunge seems elusive. Articles suggest that stock prices fall due to negative economic news. But such explanations imply that investors are surprised to learn this. And I question whether any intelligent person would be surprised to see evidence of a shrinking global economy and bad earnings.
Here's this morning's carnage. Asian markets were down more than those in Europe which have not been open as long as of this writing.The Nikkei 225 index fell 9.6% -- linked by analysts to Sony's announcement of a lower earnings forecast, Korea's Kospi (down over 50% this year) tumbled 10.6% -- attributed to Samsung's 44% earnings decline; and the Hang Seng lost 8.3%. Meanwhile Europe's major exchanges are down roughly 9%.
With the Dow set to open as low as trading limits allow -- 550 points lower, I find it striking that both the dollar -- at $1.2595 to the Euro -- and the yen -- at 92.61 yen to the dollar -- are rising in value in relation to other world currencies. Since oil is traded in dollars -- this currency strength should offset the impact of OPEC's decision to cut production by 1.5 million barrels a day. So far this theory is working -- the oil price dropped $4 a barrel after the announcement. (It couldn't happen to a nicer bunch of people.)
Meanwhile, the strength in the dollar and yen means that both the U.S. and Japanese governments have the option of selling their bonds to finance economic stimulus. The strength of currencies with eroding economies is surprising but it reflects the idea among global traders that the two largest economies in the world -- the U.S. and Japan -- are least likely to collapse. I hope that proves true.
So why are global markets plunging? I suspect that few individual investors are trading in the stock market these days so the extreme up and down movement in the global markets is due to a smaller number of big traders being forced to trade due to shareholder redemptions, margin calls, and computer-programmed trading rules.
Regrettably, no reliable information is available on who is trading and why -- so we get non-explanations that attribute major market movements to financial reports of individual companies which should not come as much a surprise to anyone who has been following the news.
And if a lack of information is not a good enough reason for investors to lose faith in financial markets, surely Alan Greenspan's admission yesterday that its underpinnings -- "free" markets and deregulation -- are intellectually bankrupt will push them over the edge.
Furthermore, if markets close today as badly as they open -- look for another weekend rescue package by Sunday night.
Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter. He has no financial interest in the securities mentioned.











Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
10-24-2008 @ 10:40AM
Walt Williams said...
It seems to me that the move that should be made to restore confidence in the stock market is for Congress to reduce the capital gains tax to zero for the next two years. My guess is that money from all over the globe would come pouring into the market, thus restoring investor confidence.
10-24-2008 @ 12:36PM
bruce madison said...
re: walt williams...
wise, sound suggestion. and the likelihood of something this promising being enacted is...?