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If you think gas prices haven't fallen fast enough, you're right

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Economist Peter Dawson did not fill up his car's gas tank with gas Saturday, and for a good reason.

"The price of gasoline is trending lower, so the longer you wait the less you'll pay," Dawson said.

In fact, in addition to cutting back his driving, Dawson is performing another modest act of conservation, which, if applied across the states, should help lower prices even more over time: he's not filling up his tank. If he uses 10 gallons in a week, he's replacing the 10, not filling the tank completely.

The above will help cancel-out the effect of a practice that's all-to-familiar to drivers: as soon as oil prices rise, gasoline stations immediately increase their prices. During the current oil shock, gas stations would some times raise prices 20 or 30 cents overnight, occasionally, more, he said.

The above practice is justified from a cash-flow standpoint, Dawson said, because gas stations are trying to prepare for the higher cost of the next gasoline delivery from gasoline wholesalers: a rise in oil prices means their next delivery is going to cost more, and to pay for it, gas stations "immediately raise their prices, so their cash flow isn't hurt."

Gas prices: Rocket up, but slow to come down

However, many gasoline stations do not apply the same rule when the price of oil drops. The above dynamic says that when the price of oil declines, the price of wholesale gas deliveries to gas stations drops, as well. Nevertheless, when oil prices decline, gas stations almost never, immediately lower prices, Dawson said.

"Gas stations know that they can increase their profits by holding on to that higher gas price for as long as possible, after the cheaper gasoline arrives," Dawson said. "It's harder for them to do it in areas of high competition, but many still try."

So if you think gas prices haven't fallen fast enough recently, given the drop in oil prices, you're right, he said.

"Whole unleaded gasoline is about $1.45 per gallon. That should translate to a price of $2.20-$2.40 per gallon at the pump. But the national average is about $2.70-$2.80," Dawson said. "Gasoline prices should be about 30-50 cents lower than they are right now."

Refiners sometimes cite high oil prices as a reason they have to keep their gasoline prices higher, but that theory is now invalid, given that oil has dropped more than 50% from $147 per barrel to about $65 per barrel.

Further, gas stations often say their profit margin is small, and many that are convenience stores do have small gas margins, preferring to offset revenue lost from gas sales with profits from convenience store items.

Consumers in cat-bird seat?

Still, Dawson said consumers "can really push prices lower" by limiting their driving and buying only what the need, not filling the tank completely when they buy gas. Those tactics, combined with previous consumer cutbacks, and the reduced number of drivers, due to the U.S. recession, "will lower gasoline demand even more, which should finally force stations to lower prices another 30-50 cents to where they should be."

Gasoline/Economic Analysis: Self-interest theory would argue that certain gas stations would try to hang on to the higher gasoline price for as long as possible, despite cheaper, recent gas deliveries, and buyer experience proves this to be the case. So try economist Dawson's tactics and see if it helps lower gas prices in your area.

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Last updated: November 27, 2009: 12:42 AM

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