Ben Bernanke lacks a strategy to deal with the financial crisis. He just keeps dropping more and more money from his helicopter and hopes it will jump start the economic system. The futures market has already baked in a 50 basis point interest rate cut for this coming Wednesday so with the Dow having lost 312 points last Friday, it would probably collapse even further if Bernanke backed off the rate cut.
But what is the point of this cut? 30-year fixed mortgage rates are higher now (6.47%) than they were in August 2007 (6.45%) when the Fed began cutting the Fed Funds rate from 5.25% to what would end up being 1% if the Fed indeed cuts by 50 basis points on Wednesday. Paul Krugman argues that the high mortgage rates may be a result of U.S. policy not to put its "full faith and credit" behind Fannie and Freddie debt -- thereby increasing its risk. If the Fed was trying to loosen up credit, these numbers suggest its rate cuts are not doing the job.
And While there are some who anticipate it will cut only 25 basis points, I am not sure why the Fed thinks this rate cut will do anything more than use up precious ammunition that might be more useful in an even more severe financial emergency. At 1%, there is not much further to cut. And with the November election fast approaching, it is clear that a real strategy to analyze and fix the myriad financial problems Bush leaves his successor will not happen until January.
If he really wanted to do something to help his legacy and the long-suffering American citizenry, Bush could leave office on November 5th and let the next President get started right away to clean up the financial catastrophe Bush has left for our 44th president.
Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter.











Reader Comments (Page 1 of 2)
10-26-2008 @ 5:37PM
ATHELSTAN said...
I like the idea of Bush stepping down on Nov. 5. I hope President-elect Obama will announce on the morning of the 5th, to use the words of Gov. Palin, "thanks, but no thanks" to the idea of Hank Paulson and Ben Bernanke continuing as part of the transition to the new Obama Treasury and Federal Reserve team.
Obama should request their resignations immediately and not wait until after January 20. The Bush and Treasury efforts have been the wrong medicine for the wrong patient, and at the wrong time. Every effort by Paulson has made to date is either inadequate, or it is directed to the wrong set of problems. Precious time and our money has been lost in a vain effort to save our economy, American jobs, and American home owners. Banks and bank stock investors may have been saved. We don't know yet, but nobody else appears to be the beneficiary of this 700 billion dollar rescue plan. Paulson seems to be working at cross purposes. Banks' best customers still can't qualify for loans. So, why should a bank lend to anyone other than another bank?
This Bush team has to go and go now.
10-26-2008 @ 6:46PM
Greg said...
Love this topic can't wait to read more on this and any other topics. This site is well put together and easy to nav. Let me read on and will comment myself.
Thanks
www.rnrstuff.com
Also Great Click Here
10-26-2008 @ 6:47PM
Greg said...
Love this topic can't wait to read more on this and any other topics. This site is well put together and easy to nav. Let me read on and will comment myself.
Thanks
www.rnrstuff.com
Also Great Click Here
10-26-2008 @ 7:20PM
D A HICK said...
ATHELSTAN NEEDS TO DO HIS HOMEWORK FIRST BEFORE HE MOUTHS OFF.
MAYBE WE SHOULD JUST QUIT TODAY, 9 DAYS BEFORE THE ELECTION AND JUST GIVE THE PRESIDENCY TO OBAMA. HE WAS ALREADY CORONATED AFTER THE DEM NATL CONVENTION, WITH HIS FAKE COLUMNS. HE ALREADY HAS HIS OWN SEAL.
LETS JUST CALL THIS THE UNITED STATES OF OBAMA.
YOU COMPLAIN ABOUT PAULSON, BUT, DID YOU KNOW HE IS A LIBERAL DEMOCRAT?
DID YOU KNOW, AND HE HIMSELF ADMITTED IT IN LAST WEEKS BUSINESS WEEK MAGAZINE, IT WAS BILL CLINTON THAT SIGNED SEVERAL LAWS LEADING UP TO TODAY'S WHAT YOU THINK OF AS DEREGULATION. HE ALSO STATED THE REPUBLICANS DIDN'T PRESSURE HIM, IT WAS HIS OWN DECISION.
DO YOUR HOMEWORK FIRST BEFORE YOU START SPOUTING OFF ABOUT SOMETHING YOU KNOW NOTHING ABOUT.
10-26-2008 @ 7:23PM
EconoMyst said...
Well, I have done a lot of research on the economy, and I am convinced that no matter who is president (Bush, McCain, Obamma, Palin, etc) that the President (like most Americans) is not going to understand everything that is going on and we need to start listening to the wisest of our experts who have many years of experience in the global and national economy.
For example, one recent article by Steve Forbes convinced me that he knows his stuff. Read it here:
http://www.forbes.com/hcome/forbes/2008/1110/018.html
10-26-2008 @ 7:38PM
D A HICK said...
IT WAS PRESIDENT WILLIAM JEFFERSON CLINTON WHO GOT ENOUGH DEMOCRATIC VOTES IN CONGRESS EARLY ON AND SIGNED THE LAW, NAFTA. THAT REALLY STARTED SENDING OUR JOBS OVERSEAS.
IT WAS PRESIDENT WILLIAM JEFFERSON CLINTON, IN 1999, THAT ORIGINATED, GOT THROUGH CONGRESS, AND SIGNED LEGISLATION THAT BASICALLY DEREGULATED THE BANKS AND ROLLED BACK THE GLASS STEAGALL ACT.
HE ADMITS IT IN HIS SEPTEMBER 24, 2008 INTERVIEW IN BUSINESS WEEK MAGAZINE. ITS IN PRINT. GO CHECK IT OUT. IF YOU READ THE WHOLE ARTICLE YOU WILL BE SHOCKED.
AND YOU WANT TO BLAME BUSH & CO?
GET YOUR FACTS STRAIGHT.
AND BY THE WAY, PLEASE DON'T CONFUSE WALL STREET WITH "THE REAL ECONOMY". THEY ARE NOT THE SAME THING.
10-26-2008 @ 9:45PM
sc1 said...
DA Hick.....Two words for you.... Phil Graham.....Three More.....Commodity Modernization Act.....Three More....Deregulate Investment Banking......Two More....Wake Up
10-26-2008 @ 11:20PM
Jack said...
YOU DONT HAVE TO BE A ROCKET SCIENTIST OR PHD TO SEE THAT THE FEDS NEED TO GET MORTGAGE RATES DOWN IN THE 3.5% RANGE TO SEE A RECOVERY....
ALL OUR MONEY IS BEING THROWN AT MORTGAGES, LOWER THE HOME MORTGAGE RATE TO 3.5% THAT WILL CUT HOUSE PAYMENTS IN HALF AND FREE UP BILLIONS TO USE IN THE ECONOMY.
HOW MANY PEOPLE OUT THEIR WOULD LIKE TO HAVE A 3.5% FIXED RATE MORTGAGE?
10-26-2008 @ 11:32PM
BUDDY said...
I AGREE WITH JACK... IF THE FEDS GOT MORTGAGE RATES DOWN IN THE 3.5% RANGE THAT WOULD NOT ONLY STIMULATE THE ECONOMY, IT WOULD STABALIZE HOME PRICES AND REDUCE FORECLOSURES.
IT WOULD ALSO REVITALIZE THE REAL ESTATE AND MORTGAGE INDUSTRY AND ALL THE OTHER INDUSTRIES THAT SUPPORT HOME OWNERSHIP.
MR BERNANKE GIVE US A 3.5% FIXED RATE EASY QUALIFY GOVERNMENT BACKED MORTGAGE!
3.5% IS WHAT IT WOULD TAKE TO FIX THIS PROBLEM BEFORE ITS TOO LATE...... 3.5%
10-27-2008 @ 1:46AM
Iridium said...
A 3.5% 30 year fixed rate mortage would do wonders for the housing market and the economy. 6.35% is extortion, there is no other word for it. Paying back $435k on a $200k loan is insane.
The problem would be how to contain the massive inflation that would follow a mortage rate drop to 3.5%.
The game has been fixed for a very long time. The real estate industry would just pay off appraisers once again. If you could all of a sudden purchase twice the house for the same payment, what is there to stop a massive runup in prices. Let alone inflation in every other area.
The biggest problem we have is that tax rates never should have been allowed to raise to the level they are currently at. Housing never should have been allowed to increase in value to the level that it was. Hedge fund traders never should have been allowed the market access and transparency they were allowed.
We can look back at the crisis and see the problems that led to it but it is very hard to put the genie back in the bottle. The steps needed to fix the problem would collapse the entire system because the system has been built on the ability for large corporations to run off of the debt market. Becuase the game is fixed by a few small players, tax and interest deductions would just lead to massive inflation.
10-27-2008 @ 4:26AM
sgentilejr said...
It is sad indeed but...THERE IS NO WAY OUT.
Regardless of who is elected....There will be nothing but gloom and more gloom in the years ahead. We as a naton have ALREADY spent out nations future away...YESTERDAY. Our factories and mills are mostly all gone now FOREVER and they will never return. Only productive...producing nations can survive. We cannot sell "service(s)" to each other and expect out nation to survive. We must produce, create real jobs and export more than we import to survive...and that sadly just ain't going to happen.
10-27-2008 @ 4:45AM
andy abraham said...
There has been much discussion on Myinvestorsplace.com that possibly the Fed and the central banks have shot...all their bullets... More so...who will be the lender of last resort??
Andy
www.myinvestorsplace.com
10-27-2008 @ 7:48AM
Spaz04 said...
Experts?? If any of these clowns that you see on tv were supposed experts they would've told us to get our money out of the market on 10/2007. .....What's going on now is called "Monday morning quarterbacking."
And, nothing will ever change in this country until we get someone in office that acually cares about the country more than thier own personal wealth. All crooks and I dont believe a one of them. Makes it hard to vote at all!! You have to try to figure out who's lying the least. .......Also, its rediculous to blame all this crap on "W." Not that I'm sticking up for him, I'm not! But, not ALL his fault. There's plenty of blame to go around. ....Whats going on here is EMBARASSING to all Americans!
10-27-2008 @ 8:39AM
Paco said...
Somebody is foolin somebody......if you cant get a loan for a car or truck now.....you got a problem......if you cant get a loan for a home.......you got a problem..........The moneys there.....the deals are there.........but your credit is shot......whos problem is that.....you were livin fat and now the bill is due....suck it up and pay up
10-27-2008 @ 10:13AM
nick said...
The word on the street and inside the Fed is, the Fed chief has been making deals with Obama folks, he has told folks that he thinks the election is over. Looks like FRANKLIN RAINES is pulling some strings already. Insiders say they don't need the white vote anymore, they have fooled enough and with their 95 per cent black vote fooled they got it in the bag. They were a little concerned at first with the red neck vote but now they have it and they will go after the NRA when they are in office big time. They say they will put the hurt one the faith and gun crowd like they havn't seen in years, they say by the time they get done Ronnie will turn over in his grave.
10-27-2008 @ 12:03PM
AJGORM said...
Worry about the rest of the world Ben. We are not going to buy any more garbage imports. No more glitsy diamonds or gold to feed the blood greed. We are conserving fuel we are destined to succeed. It is time to stop the hand outs and get people on their feet using hard work. Feed America with clean air and rivers alternate energy and most of all stop the market rip offs that speculate on our dreams making it difficult to fullfill our dreams.
10-27-2008 @ 3:26PM
Dan said...
The idea that the tax payer should dump money in this is just a rip off until Bush can get out of office. These people should pay for this and it should be paid for by a tax, called a STET. A Securities Turnover Excise Tax is a tax put on traders every time they make a trade they pay .25% per trade. This has been done throughout our history and has paid for wars in the past During the Depression when FDR came into office he doubled it so that it would dampen speculation as well as pay for their bad judgment. It's lubricious that the American public should have to pay for Wall Street’s greed.
10-27-2008 @ 4:29PM
JM said...
It's like the Government is doing this diliberately to crash our monetary system. Most analyst's and the American people agree that this is not the way to go yet they are doing it anyway.
10-27-2008 @ 6:03PM
toogeorge said...
DON'T FORGET FOLKS, YOUR TAX DOLLARS WILL BE GOING TO PROP UP PRIVATE COMPANIES WHO WERE GAMBLING IN WEIRD DERIVITIVES(like those which contributed to the 1907 crash, and resulted in legisilation banning such bets, until 2000 when most regulation of financial markets was removed). 60 MINUTES DID AN EXPOSE OF THIS YESTERDAY, SUNDAY 10/26.
10-28-2008 @ 9:44AM
DON KEY said...
I lost $17,000 in AIG failure and now my TAX dollars are being used to float AIG so I am *#*% paying again ... if fraud discovered I want PEOPLE in JAIL because I am not getting a GOV HANDOUT !!!
ALWAYS wierd stuff during GOP ADMINs ... S & L with GOP RONALD RAY-GUN now complete melt down with high energy costs under BUSH CHENEY GOP.
DUMP FREAKING GOP in NOV.