Up until very recently, retail executives were hoping holiday sales might be up 2% or 3%, but most of that optimism has faded. According to The Wall Street Journal, "Chief marketing officers at 100 retail companies said in a survey by BDO Seidman LLP that they expect their companies' same-store sales in November and December to fall an average of 2.7%."
Declining sales mean some retailer companies either won't make it or will be faced with significant store closures and layoffs. Circuit City (NYSE: CC) is likely to fold as may some small retailers.
Watch for a number of other retailers to hit 52-week lows, especially those that were struggling before the downturn.
At the top of that list put Sears (NASDAQ: SHLD). Same-store sales are already weak. The stock is off to near a 52-week low at $47.57 against a 52-week high of almost $140. The retailer could easily close hundreds of stores and see its share move toward $30.
Another retailer that is having huge sales problems is Gap (NYSE: GPS). It should have closed its Old Navy line a year ago. Now, that is more likely. The stock trades at $11, down by half from its period high. Unless it does some store triage, Gap stock would go below $7.
Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 24/7 Wall St.
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