Global markets are crashing down today. Asia (Hang Seng down 12.7%, Nikkei 225 fell 6.4%) and Europe (Dow Jones Euro Stoxx 50 crumbled by 5.9% and the FTSE 100 index tumbled 5.4%) are collapsing in unison. And in the last year, they have lost 51% of their value -- destroying $29.6 trillion in stock market value. You may have noticed that stockholders are the silent majority of the financial crisis. This is the group of citizens that Richard Nixon tried to mobilize to win elections. And it's the same group that John McCain's advisor, Phil Gramm, talks about when he says Americans are Whiners.
There are plenty of corporations and financial institutions that can afford lobbyists. The clients of lobbyists don't whine -- they get bailouts. As vice chairman of UBS AG (NYSE: UBS), Gramm is one of the lobbyists that the average taxpayer can't afford, so we end up paying to bail out those who can. How much? Commercial Paper (CP) gets $540 billion; Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM), Freddie Mac (NYSE: FRE), and American International Group (NYSE: AIG) get $322.8 billion; and the top nine banks get $125 billion to pay bonuses (since Hank Paulson did not require them to lend it out).
Even if stockholders could hire lobbyists, it is unlikely that governments would be able to come up with enough cash to reimburse us for the $29.6 trillion we've lost so far -- or for the additional $20 trillion we could lose if things keep going the way they have been. With confidence lost that governments will solve the problem, people are now trying to cut their losses before they get even worse.
That lack of confidence is what will drive global stock markets for the foreseeable future.
Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter. He owns AIG shares and has no financial interest in the other securities mentioned.











Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
10-27-2008 @ 9:32AM
bestsolutionsfl said...
WE CAN TAKE ALL THE TIME NEEDED TO FIX BLAME,what is needed now is a fast,fair and speedy solution.
A SOLUTION THAT IS NO COST TO THE TAXPAYER,A BUSINESS PLAN THAT CREATES A PROFIT.
CHANGE IT,CHALLENGE IT,OR ENDORSE IT!
BECAUSE OF LOW COST MONEY BEING AVAILABLE,WITH A NEW LONG TERM PAYBACK PERIOD.THIS IS NO BAILOUT ,IT IS A BUSINESS PLAN THAT CREATES A PROFIT.And based on the latest spin "ONE HELL OF A STIMULUS PACKAGE"
Image over 6 million homeowners now setting aside their need for survival and shelter can go about the business of "the pursuit of happiness"-spending!
"THE SMOKING GUN"!
A SPECIAL MORTGAGE:THE SOLUTION IN ONE SENTENCE:TURN THE "BAD TOXIC"(BT) LOANS INTO GOOD LOANS!
Borrower (homeowner that wishes to stay or new homeowner) will be given a special new loan.The loan amount will be the FAIR MARKET VALUE (FMV) of the home.
Lender will receive PAYMENT IN FULL for the amount of the balance that is due on the loan,the amount may not contain any costs or penalties.It is only that unpaid principal.100% of the principal.i.e.The FMV and "the out of the money portion".
The TRUST AND CREDIT WORTH of the true asset value must be made whole.
This is not a bailout that is giving away the trillions of dollars needed to make the BT loans become good loans.The asset must be made 100% whole.All partys can negociate their portion but understanding that no matter how split,100% of the pricipal is to be repaid and a profit is to be made from that repayment.
It is the "EVERYBODY WINS PLAN" that calls for loans to both Lender and Borrower with terms and conditions for a profitable payback.A profit to the taxpayer.The greater the problem;the greater the reward.
****Money
The money used to BUY back all these loans is in the form of the US Treasury 10 year Bond paying @3.5% interest.(Callable at 100
in any period after 1 year in 100 billion dollar amounts)
The crisis is like an inverted pyramid with a point being the BT Loans which could be $2-$5 Trillion that were re-financed and repackaged to what is believed today to be $55 Trillion.We must restore this point of the pyramid 100% in order to prevent a $55 Trillion implosion.Stop the bleeding first fix blame next but at all times no bailout rather a profitable to taxpayers venture.
***The Borrowers Loan:
A Special 10/30 Year loan(Mortgage)
****Part one****
The 10 year note(120 fixed payments).
This fixed low affordable payment will include :principal,interest,and profit.
The 10 year 3.5 Tresuary Bond is used as payment in full to the lender.
The lender is paid both FMV and that portion that is "out of the money".Everybody must win to stop this crisis immediately and then take all the time needed to blame,punish and legislate to prevent this from happenning again..
This is a business plan,the loans are to be paid back-
Principal,interest and profit.
Borrower PORTION IS A PAY BACK (part one of two parts) OF 120 Fixed Monthly payments.
Payment to be $490 per $100,000 loan amount.
A VERY LOW AFFORDABLE PAYMENT.Per $100,000 @$490 per Month.
10 year Fixed monthly payment ................. $490/month
THIS IS PRINCIPAL, INTEREST and PROFIT.
(200000 LOAN---$980/MONTH **P.I.P.)______________________________________
LET'S DO THE MATH for part one of two parts.
Also known as "You have a lot of explaining to do!"
Per One Hundred thousand
First 10 years payments......$490X120......TOTAL.....INCOME........... . $58,800
* PRINCIPAL.......Returned..................... .............. ........... .................. ........$10,000
*this reduces the $100,000 bond to $90,000
**INTEREST.........Paid................... ................................ ......$35,000
** pays the ENTIRE 10 years interest on the full $ 100,000
..(That's makes it no interest cost to taxpayer)
TOTAL....................................................…………............$45,000
That leaves a $13,800 profit....Total payback $58,800
NO COST TO TAXPAYERS*******with a $13,800 profit per $100,000
BAD LOANS TURNED INTO GOOD LOANS!
THAT ARE AFFORDABLE!NOW EXTREMELY COLLECTABLE,credit worthy because they are AFFORDABLE! AND based 100% on asset value!
HOW DOES $58,800 pay off $100,000 loan
with $35,000 interest and $13,800 profit???
There is still $90,000 missing!!!
***** Part Two : a 30 year fixed rate note pays the $90,000 balance.
If rate @ 6% payment $540/month)
Makes the loan PAID-IN-FULL.
BORROWERS PORTION PAID IF FULL AT A PROFIT TO TAXPAYERS.
The new loan will have a true asset value that is
greater then the loan amount because :
1. It is 90% loan to value
2. If there is any appreciation the loan to value would be lower.
(Exp.A 10% increase in home value,would make the loan to value 80%)Loans the same lenders would beg to have.A Borrower with a ten year track record with a loan ratio less than 90%.
This solution is just like in the 1930's.Mortgages were 5 year terms, it was the NEW IDEA ,a LONGER term loan,the 25 year loan,that made the payback affordable.
and now with todays low cost of money makes it even more affordable.
TOTALTIME FOR TOTAL RECOVERY-TEN YEARS .
Note :Bonds should be callable more then 50% of the borrowers
may convert their loans to a fixed 30 on a resale within 6 years.
THE borrower is a winner!!
***********************************************************
Now for "THE EVERYBODY WINS PLAN" it must be shown how the taxpayer wins ,even from the LENDERS LOAN WHICH pays a" phantom" asset,the money lost.the percentage of the asset that no longer exists.
There is a gap between this new true asset loan amount and the bad or "toxic" loan,we shall call this amount the "out of money" amount.
The "out of money" loss- 100% of which will be paid directly to the lenders ,thereby covering 100% of the refinanced CDS "true asset value" of their money already loss.As a side benefit the lender will also have the resevre money released which it can now use to make even more money.This portion (lenders)has a different payment plan.
***NOTICE:A payback plan,a payback that returns principal,interest and profit to the taxpayer.
The lender will issue New stock as payment ,that the taxpayers new agency( Freddie Aff) will hold under a special "HOMESAFE STOCK 10 Year Plan". This plan will have an automatic cash out provision .It must divest itself of it's corporate interest,period,end of conversation.No "new implied future government interest.
The stock will convert to repayment in increments such as 10% cashed when stock is at 110% of value when given as loan asset.,
30% at 115%,
and last 60% at 120%.
This will cash out the payment,at a profit to taxpayers.YES,even the lenders will be winners.Yes at NO cost to taxpayers rather as an investment with a net profit.This is a business plan that has a payback agreement attached to it.
There are alternative plans for cash out if the unbelievable occurs,because as in all prices there is the possibility of lower.If during the ten year frame there is a remaining portion,those remaining share will be cashed out at market price but the number of shares will be changed to equal the dollar balance owed in principal ,interest and profit,which at some time will be cashed out..The taxpayer must win.
***************EVERYBODY WINS PLAN***************
That would be a $ billions profit
instead of a
TRILLION DOLLAR LOSS!!!
If this is done by a new agency that is taxpayer owned,the money could be used for Soc. Sec.,Health Care,and even Education.
MULTIPLE SOLUTIONS ALL AT THE SAME TIME!There are answers !Challenge the questions!
THE ******MOST UNBELIEVABLE PART*********
the agency and the funding is already legally there,and this could be done within 90 days!!!!!!!
An anouncement of this plan
with details would create an immediate RELIEF and "CREDADE"-CREDIT-TRUST in the AMERICAN SYSTEM.
Carmen Basilovecchio
Best Solutions Fl Real Estate 9804 S MilitaryTrail E-10
Boynton Beach,Fl.33436
bestsolutionsfl ,yes at aol.com
REQUEST DETAILS,ASK QUESTIONS
10-27-2008 @ 10:30AM
silverfox said...
At the very least the public, now being stock owning investors, should have the right to be informed of the salaries, bonuses, pensions, deferred compensations, etc.that is being paid to the CEO's and other senior executives in these financial institutions being bailed out with taxpayer money.
10-27-2008 @ 12:34PM
Moscow Joe said...
This proves that stock wealth is an illusion. If the market is"worth" 30 trilllion and very one wanted thier money on the same day, it would not be their. the stock market is a good thing, but it is fragil and in many ways not real. if 30 trillion dollars of real money was some how destroyed, the money left wobe worth even more. Not the case in stocks.