Earnings preview: Procter & Gamble ready to beat Wall Street?

Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG), which competes with Clorox (NYSE: CLX), Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ), Kimberly-Clark (NYSE: KMB), and Colgate-Palmolive (NYSE: CL), will be reporting earnings for the fiscal first quarter on Wednesday. The data will be scrutinized carefully to see if P&G might be a viable idea in these tumultuous times. Of course, P&G is a great long-term investment for a core portfolio of buy-and-hold stocks, but there will be plenty of investors on Wall Street looking to gauge the company's potential as a defensive trade.

According to Earnings.com, P&G should earn about $0.98 per share. At least, that's the goal that analysts have set for management. If P&G hits that number, then it will have achieved a modest growth rate of around 6%. I expect P&G to beat expectations by a penny or two, given its recent history. The company usually is pretty good about that. Also, free cash flow should be more than acceptable to investors. Management watches cash-flow generation carefully (as it should), and traditionally makes that a priority. Naturally, it wants to balance the needs of long-term growth along with the need to deliver a proper flow of cash. So far, things have worked out over time on that count.

The big question now is: What about the future outlook? What the company says about this subject will probably end up driving the stock's reaction. The global marketplace is headed for a slowdown. Consumers are tightening their belts. Will they reach for generic brands and ignore the brand equity of the products in P&G's vast portfolio? P&G is going to have become aggressive about promoting its stuff. The company will want to make sure that people still feel their getting value for their dollar. That dollar, after all, goes farther with a generic equivalent. From my viewpoint, I think there is still value to be had from name brands. Even during a recession, I'll buy better quality items. Just yesterday I happened to pick up one of P&G's family members -- Bounty paper towels. It was on sale, but I'm sure there was a generic lurking around the corner that was cheaper. I didn't even bother looking for it. Sure, I do buy some generics, but I don't necessarily become obsessed with them.

P&G wasn't that far from the 52-week low at Monday's close. I wouldn't be setting up an earnings trade ahead of it because of all the uncertainty, but holders of the stock should fare reasonably well come the middle of the week (P&G did fine the last time).

Disclosure: I don't own any company mentioned; positions can change at any time.