A year ago, few in the currency market would have predicted this stunning reversal in the flow of capital. Despite being the nation that's likely to bear the largest economic and fiscal costs -- including a huge increase in its budget deficit and national debt -- from the global financial crisis, institutional investors are turning to the U.S. dollar in a flight-to-safety that economists say shows few signs of ending soon.
Investors flee to the dollar
That's right: you read correctly -- investors are turning to the dollar as a safe haven. Despite a decade of budget and trade deficits that drove the dollar to records lows. Despite an uncertain (at best) immediate economic outlook (the U.S. will be oh-so-fortunate to experience only a mild recession). Despite disagreement in the nation over the best way to pay for the many rescues / interventions needed to end the crisis. Despite the uncertainties presented by the upcoming U.S. Presidential / Congressional election. Despite its inadequate infrastructure and underdeveloped industrial base.
Despite all of the above, institutional investors abroad want: dollars. Money is flowing out of emerging markets and into the dollar -- so much that the major central banks may very well have to intervene repeatedly to support emerging market currencies to prevent further global financial system destabilization. Institutional investors are also flocking to Japan's yen, due to that country's relatively lower exposure to toxic assets.
When a foreign currency, such as Mexico's peso, declines rapidly in value, it makes it harder for that country to pay back loans from Western banks, which could lead to more corporate defaults, or possibly government defaults.
Mexico's peso, once about 10 pesos to the dollar this summer, has weakened to 12.9 pesos to the dollar. So far, Mexico officials have been able to slow the peso's drop: the Banco de Mexico has bought $13.1 billion worth of pesos since October 8.
Meanwhile, in Ukraine, the Kiev-based central bank will accept a $16.5 billion loan from the International Monetary Fund, subject to the approval of Ukraine's parliament, to help support the nation's financial system. Institutional investors are concerned about the threats to Ukrainian banks posed by the credit crunch.
Also, Brazil's central bank has intervened in the currency market several times this month to check the slide of its currency, the real, which has weakened to 2.46 reals versus the dollar, from 1.46 in August.
On Wednesday, the U.S. Federal Reserve took additional actions to simultaneously meet developing countries' needs for more dollars and support their local currencies by establishing $30 billion temporary swap lines with Brazil, Mexico, South Korea, and Singapore.
Economist David H. Wang said the move by institutional investors to the dollar is "a statement of confidence in the American system of government" -- one that's occurring, paradoxically, at a time when the U.S.'s economic fundamentals are at their weakest levels in decades.
"I think what's coming into play here is the United States' history of its respect for the rule of law and the nation's Bill of Rights, including the protection of capital, and, to a certain degree, the inherent fairness of the American people," Wang said. "Institutional investors and others believe that at the end of the day, they will get a fair shake in the American system ... receive fair treatment, certainly faring no worse than the treatment they would receive in other countries."
The fiscal / economic consequence of investors' flocking to the dollar? It will enable the United States to finance its bank rescue and economic recovery spending at interest rates dramatically lower than what they would be, had institutional investors fled the dollar, Wang said. "I can't think of any other modern nation that had this advantage when a financial crisis hit their nation," Wang said. "In some sense, it is remarkable."
Economic Analysis: Regarding foreign institutional investor confidence in the dollar, the view from here argues there will be no second chances for United States. As economist Wang noted, the nation has an opportunity to fix its structural problems at relatively low -- not high -- interest rates. Those fixes include balancing its federal budget, an energy policy to cut the trade deficit, massive rebuilding of its infrastructure, incentives to redevelop its industrial base, incentives to help Americans save more, health care reform, and of course, beefed-up financial services / banking regulations.











Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
10-30-2008 @ 2:09AM
Mike Sanders said...
This explains why the fed can be so aggressive in lowering interest rates. Normally, this would cause inflation.
It only stands to reason that if our American companies are worth less dollars, then those dollars must be worth much more. :-)
10-30-2008 @ 11:02AM
ALISHA said...
WHO ARE THESE PEOPLE THAT DOWNGRADE A STOCK, WENDY'S HAS BEEN AROUND FOREVER DO YOU REALLY CONSIDER IT A RISKY STOCK OR DO YOU HAVE ALL YOUR FAT CELLS TIED UP IN MICKY D'S. I PERSONALLY THINK ITS A GOOD BUY IT MAY NOT SHOOT UP RIGHT NOW BUT IN THE FUTURE IT WILL BE BACK THERE WITH TACO BELL AND MCD'S, I INVESTED FOR MY SON'S 16TH BIRTHDAY HE HAS 6 YEARS TO WATCH IT GROW. IT WILL DECIDE IF HE GETS
A UGO OR A CHEVY , HAHAHA THE ONLY REASON THE STOCK IS SO LOW IS IT HAD A REVERSE SPLIT WHEN THEY AQUIRED ARBY'S.
10-30-2008 @ 1:52PM
think said...
hey mike, Don't be fooled there is going to be inflation big time with all the money we are printing. a 10% to 20% position in gold may be something to contemplate. Good luck,
10-31-2008 @ 5:14AM
Mike Nesbit said...
The US has been in deficit for years . An artificially high dollar only makes it harder for your exporters. Internationally, no one has any confidence in the integrity of anything the US does. Hey, you caused this carp.
The piper has to be paid eventually or the USA goes bust. Best scenario is that the world moves on while you pay off enormous debts with a devaluing dollar.
The quoted economist with his star spangled glasses, seems a total wanger.