George W. Bush has often stated his idea that freedom is America's gift to the world. So what is Bush's going away gift to America? Third quarter GDP shrank by 0.3%, less than the expected 0.5%, and the unemployment ranks swelled to 479,000, more than the 475,000 forecast.
Given the decline in consumer spending and the swelling ranks of the unemployed, I am surprised that the GDP contraction was so modest, but I would not be surprised to see a bigger decline when the numbers are revised after the election.
Meanwhile, the ideas that have propelled the global financial markets to their current perilous state are breathing their last. The notion that government should shrink for the rich -- by cutting taxes on the top 1%, spending record amounts on defense to give Bush's gift to Iraq, running huge budget deficits ($1 trillion for 2009), slashing regulation, and boosting Federal, corporate, and consumer debt to keep up with shrinking income -- is nearly dead.
And the upcoming election will plunge a dagger into its dying heart.
Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter.











Reader Comments (Page 1 of 2)
10-30-2008 @ 10:29AM
Extrememountains said...
For all of the people that think that our President has control over the economy, just wait. Remember this after 4 years of Obama, or 4 years of McCain. Either way, let us remember to blame the commander in chief no matter what, as long as it is bad news. Human Beings have historically always done this. It is our way of not being held accountable for our own actions. Or at least we get to measure the amount of accountability that we choose to accept for ourselves. By accepting just a little bit, we can say that we are not dodging accountability. We learn to do this at
around 5 years old. Don't worry, given the direction that the world is going in the next 10-15 years, McCain or Obama will probably be rated as the new all-time worst President in U.S. history, and once again we will blame someone else so we can get to sleep at night.
10-30-2008 @ 11:08AM
MaryLou Michelin said...
One reason we have a higher unemployment figure is that thisis the time of year that many farm workers do not work. Harvest is over, and planting has not started. Yes, I want change too- I want the gas prices to return to 2.29 as they were before the Demos took over congress- the market headed above 14000- (07-07)The housing mess started with Clintons "Everybody should be able to have a home" -wake up and know what is going on-
10-30-2008 @ 11:15AM
Grant said...
Everyone needs to give our commander in cheif a hellofalot more respect, he is not alone in putting this country in the tank, take a closer look at congress!
10-30-2008 @ 11:50AM
gerald said...
The Bush administration is a bunch of lieing theiving politicians. This administration has been revising almost every quarterly report months after the bad numbers come in. They do this to make the administration look better and to mislead the public of how bad this economy really is. I don't think I know we are headed into a depression, one that will be very very bad. Just look at AIG and the 130 billion they have borrowed and more loans will be comming. Every one from walstreet to washington is lieing about profits forecast and the like. Don't trust any of the fortune 500.
10-30-2008 @ 11:59AM
Thomas Paine said...
True enough, there's blame aplenty to go around. The American public spent money not earned and we call that Credit. When they continue to do that, we call it Going Broke. Finally, we call the Bankruptcy lawyer.
Some folks bought homes they couldn't afford and some bought homes that they could just barely afford, as long as they kept their present job. And, encountered no other (new) bills. And, their child's college didn't raise tuition. And, etc.
BUT... Joe lost his job and finally found one making one-half as much... Joan had a long battle with the Flu, followed by an even longer battle with her employer-provided insurance plan.. the State University raised Joe Jr.'s tuition by 40%.
That's when they defaulted on their mortgages, right? NO, that's when they began to Charge the necessities of life to their credit cards, equity loan, etc. The fact that grocery stores began accepting credit cards during the past few years, is just a coincidence, yes?
True enough, there are some people that simply spent themselves into a deep hole, have not accepted responsibility for their actions and continue to scream "not my fault!". True enough.
BUT... some folks just got squeezed by this economy; as it grew more "Going Broke", they simply grew more squeezed. The economy, unlike those people, will not end up in bankruptcy court, but it should. That would teach IT a lesson!
And just who would be the petitioners and who would be the creditors? That's easy, the creditors would be us - the American citizens. The petitioners would be Congress and the Presidential Administration.
Now, right off the bat, a glaring question comes to mind. Why is it that TWO Branches of our government are joined together in this case, when they are supposed to provide a system of Checks and Balances, of each other?
Methinks an agenda and a rubberstamp game has taken place. And it has, from 2000 to 2006. The old, tired Republican accusation towards Democrats of "tax and spend", pales in comparison to what the Republicans have done - Borrow and Spend.
I may well put the lash to the American public for their misdeeds, but my hand would be tempered by the knowledge that they were following a bad example from their leaders, as well as attempting to tread water from a burst dam that was not of their own, entire doing.
BUT... when it came time for the Washington Group to receive their punishment, it would be best if that task were given to someone else. Their acts were deliberate and therefore, unforgivable. I would show them no mercy, at all.
10-30-2008 @ 12:04PM
joe said...
Good RIDDENCE BOY GEORGE!!PLEASE DON'T COME BACK!
10-30-2008 @ 12:03PM
andy abraham said...
Regardless of the outcome of the elections..either candidate will have a hard time... The problems we got in took years to create...and probably years to solve. Myself and the members of Myinvestorsplace.com have discussed at length...and we do not see an easy fix...where are we wrong...??
Andy
www.myinvestorsplace.com
11-23-2008 @ 10:31PM
winslow said...
Bush will go down as the worse president in history. As leader, he has the responsibility to lead and make decisions to provide the direction the country will take. His decisions were deliberate. Did you hear what Obama said yesterday about his possible cabinet....he wants to be surrounded by the best thinkers, regardless of their party affiliation. Can you imagine Bush ever promoting this? Every mishap in this country (Iraq, Katrina, ad nauseum) were due to all advisors having similiar beliefs.
10-30-2008 @ 12:33PM
hpedigo@aol.com said...
I am suprised that a person with Mr Cohan credentials would exhibit such shallow thought processes. If you believe Mr. Cohan; Prsident Bush is also responsible for the weather. I can't believe this persoon has managed to maintain a position as a teacher!
10-30-2008 @ 12:36PM
Bob said...
Media dumping on Bush again. We are here thanks to Clinton and congressional Democrats passing CRA and goading Fannie to underwrite uncreditworth loans.
10-30-2008 @ 12:38PM
bill said...
Well written Peter..... Spoken like a typical elite lib.... Who sits on his arse and spouts to they young american minds...Those who cant do ... Teach?
10-30-2008 @ 2:24PM
Al Militano said...
Peter Cohan!-- This elite, leftist, liberal bull shit artist is an indication of why this country is in the shape it's in. They refuse to acept the fact that it was Clinton's administration and the Democrat's control of Congress, and not Bush, that is responsible for this awful mess. Why don't you stop brainwashing the young voters who are nieve enough to believe this crap and start reporting the truth? I guess that will never happen though because you are really an asshole that actually belive it's true. Jerks like you should be banned from making untrue statements but freedom of speech gives you the right to make an ass of yourself and I support that right although I would like to see a piece of duct tape stuck over your lying lips to shut you up.
10-30-2008 @ 1:31PM
Thomas Paine said...
The interesting part about the CRA, is in some of its history:
"In October 1997, First Union Capital Markets and Bear, Stearns & Co launched the first publicly available securitization of Community Reinvestment Act loans, issuing $384.6 million of such securities. The securities were guaranteed by Freddie Mac and had an implied "AAA" rating. The public offering was several times oversubscribed, predominantly by money managers and insurance companies who were not buying them for CRA credit." (from Wiki)
Let's get this straight. Mortgage papers (somewhat a Gamble), were bundled and sold as investment instruments (more Gamble) and then "purchased" several times over. All I can think is: house o' cards waiting on a strong breeze.
First Union was bought-out by Wachovia. So we HAD two banks - Wachovia and Bear Sterns - that started this Gambling Game and everyone else jumped on board. Imagine that.
I see that some folks still don't get it... The majority of people that had these mortgages didn't just "all of a sudden" decide to default - AND - They didn't just walk away when their home's mortgage value dropped below market value.
They continued to make their payments as long as they had their Job - AND - They didn't get hit with un-avoidable New Debts. The SYSTEM failed them. No, not all of them can claim the System, but do you really think...
This entire financial crisis was born from a massively HUGE amount of people that simply cannot afford their own home?
Well, then - there you are! For those folks: either the jobs fell out, the debts piled up or else America just doesn't have enough well paying jobs to support home ownership (yet, higher-cost rent can be afforded??).
How about we change those factors? Promote and create job growth - unlike the current administration. Help to reduce the possibility of catastrophic debt of healthcare and higher education - unlike the current administration.
Go out and VOTE for the Change We Need.
10-30-2008 @ 1:50PM
Iridium said...
People have to understand that large corporations do not stimulate job growth, they kill it. Over the past 20 years we have seen mega corporations grow larger than countries. Right now these corporations are laying off hundreds of thousands of workers. They force the workers they keep to do the job of 5 workers and pay them half what one worker should make.
We must allow the mega corporation to die. We must split up large companies and foster the groth of small business. We must bring back American production.
The reason why we are in this mess is because we do not make anything anymore. There really isn't any true value to the majority of American jobs. That is why mega corporations can lay off thousands of workers and stay in business.
10-30-2008 @ 3:07PM
ED WOOD said...
Al, don't be such a fool! I'm sorry you voted for Bush but liberals have nothing to do with the problems that we're having.
How about going around the world fighting wars that we can't afford?
Both the democrats and the republicans are in the pocket of the corporations, you need to shut of Rush and do some thinking for yourself, cause Rush is stupid and the more you listen to him the more stupid you'll get;-(
10-30-2008 @ 3:27PM
jeffc said...
I think it's sad that so many Americans want to blame all the economic troubles on the president and that they actually think that a different one is going to solve everything. If Gerge Bush's last gift to America is a shrinking economy and rising unemployment, then we must also give him credit for plummeting oil costs, a strengthening U.S. Dollar and increasing savings by Americans. Maybe we should also give him credit for forcing Americans to finally realize that we are too wasteful with our energy resources and fresh water, are living on credit and produce very little. Wake up America! Oue entire economy has become based on consumption and financial services and it has very little to do with the sitting President or his party affiliation. It's time we finally stop talking so much about it and ernestly start the difficult and painful process of conservation and accept the consequences from the last fifty years of rampant consumerism. Sure it was fun while it lasted, but it's time to pay the price and stop blaming every one else for our hangover and looking for a magic cure. It's time for all of us to take responsibility for ourselves and stop waiting for our government to bail us out of our failures.
10-30-2008 @ 5:14PM
DAN TERRY said...
I would like to hear from the brain dead contingent in January 2013. If you remeber the adinmistration of peanut farmer Jimmy Carter, stand by for the same to the power of 10. The only people who will flourish in the next foru years of pelosi/reed/obama are those stuck in being on welfare at the working population's expense. I'd love to expound further but I must do something conswtructive--commonly called WORK!!!
10-30-2008 @ 3:30PM
quietguy said...
Mr. Cohan teaches management? This may be part of the problem in America today. Liberal instructors teaching their political views as fact. He seems to blame President Bush for everything. Does he not pay attention. We have a democratric congress. If after this election we end up with a democratic super majority and a president that rubs elbows with terrorists- God help us.
10-30-2008 @ 5:24PM
pkavision@aol.com said...
Everyone talks about what might happen if it's all Dems after the election. Why was that not a problem when it was all Repubs? No administration is perfect, but GWB's administration was full of nepotism, cheats, and liars. You can try to blame Clinton, but let's not forget that the Repubs had control for 12 years. I think that says a lot.
For the economic meltdown, yes, we are all to blame. We let the "trickle down" theory run its course, even though it failed. We let the Repubs deregulate. We let the wolves guard the hen house.
Now we ALL pay the price. That's Bush's legacy and ours, too.
10-30-2008 @ 7:35PM
jpilmer said...
FINALLY! The press' doom and gloom scenario seems to have some validation from "the facts". The definition of a recession, as so eloquently stated by the author is 2 quarters, not one, of negative GDP growth. But, alas, we can only hope that the massive deluge of negative recession talk will be validated by yet a 2nd quarter of negative growth - a textbook recession. The media can then finally rest from this heavy, heavy burden they have carried for all of us - saying the sky is falling when it has yet to do so.
Did anyone notice that the Leading Economic Indicators were up for September? Hmmmmm! Don't tell the press.
http://www.pilmerpr.com/blog/pr-strategy/anyone-for-good-news-leading-economic-indicators-up/