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Chasing Value: JPM creates JNJ opportunity

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Yesterday, Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ) was downgraded by JP Morgan as reported by my colleague Melly Alazraki in Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) downgraded - really?.

I wanted to further elaborate on some issues because of the position Johnson & Johnson holds in our hearts, and many of our portfolios. I should also point out that the downgrade did have a caveat, the analyst believes the stock may very well regain strength toward the end of 2009.

JPM believes Johnson & Johnson is expensive relative to it's peers. That should be expected from my point of view because it is considered the measure of a safe haven in our uncertain times. The tougher the economy becomes the more one should expect JNJ to separate itself from others.

As I stated in my comments the downgrade may be warranted in some respects but many things about this company stand out.

  • JNJ may be more valuable than other pharma's because they are half pharma and half consumer product like Procter and Gamble (NYSE: PG). This makes JNJ earnings and cash flow more stable.
  • What is management worth? JNJ was just voted the best-managed company in the world by its peers, as published in Barron's.
  • JNJ has paid a dividend almost forever and it is one of the more reliable returns you can count on in this low interest rate environment.
  • JNJ is Triple A rated; a rarity these days.
  • JNJ is much less volatile in these troubled times and so is not a favorite of short sellers, and day traders. The caveat discussed by the analyst makes it seem like this is a trading stock. Most JNJ shareholders are the old fashion buy and hold guys.

From my point of view investors should be encouraged to take advantage of the JPM downgrade and maybe a real buying opportunity will arise in the mid to low 50's; it closed yesterday at $61.53 and is down in morning trading. If this happens you will be able to pick up a great stock at discount to the market and JPM's projections. Then, after you buy it JPM will upgrade it in a latent fashion as most calls made by analysts occur. When this happens please be sure and thank the analyst then, for creating the opportunity now!

Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the principal for design and research at an architecture & planning firm. He writes the columns Chasing Value and Serious Money. Disclosure: I own shares of JNJ and JPM.

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Last updated: November 25, 2009: 03:57 PM

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