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The week in preview: Expectations remain high for energy and oil

Posted Nov 2nd 2008 12:30PM by Trey ThoelckeTrey Thoelcke RSS Feed
Filed under: Earnings reports, Ford Motor (F), Sprint Nextel Corp (S), MasterCard Inc'A' (MA), Trump Entertainment Resorts (TRMP), EOG Resources (EOG), Anadarko Petroleum (APC), Goodyear Tire and Rubber (GT)

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The focus of last week's preview was on oil and energy companies, and we saw that big oil had a good week, reporting better-than-expected results and record profits driven by high prices in the third quarter. Energy-related companies are well represented again this week and expectations in general remain high.

Early in the week, analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial anticipate that the big earnings gainers will include EOG Resources Inc. (NYSE: EOG), Anadarko Petroleum Corp. (NYSE: APC), and Cimarex Energy Co. (NYSE: XEC), which are expected to post profits of $2.24 per share (up 64.7% from a year ago), $1.48 per share (up 52.7%) and $2.26 per share (up 61.1%) respectively. All three of them have offered positive surprises in recent quarters, and analysts on average recommend buying EOG and Anadarko. Other expected big earnings gainers early in the week include Forest Oil Corp. (NYSE: FST), Pioneer Natural Resources Co. (NYSE: PXD), Comstock Resources Inc. (NYSE: CRK), and MasterCard Inc. (NYSE: MA). The earnings of phosphates producer Innophos Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: IPHS) are expected to have risen 92.3% to $3.37 per share. Innophos beat estimates in the previous quarter by a whopping 210%, and analysts have been impressed with Innophos's lack of debt and pricing gains despite the slowing economy, so, on average, they recommend buying IPHS.

Also early in the week, analysts expect Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co. (NYSE: GT), Kaiser Aluminum Corp. (NASDAQ: KALU), and Oshkosh Corp. (NYSE: OSK) to report that their profits fell 52.9% to $0.33 per share, 45.1% to $0.67 per share, and 41.2% to $0.67 per share, respectively. These companies have tended to beat estimates in recent quarters, and the consensus recommendations of analysts are to buy them. However, PMI Group Inc. (NYSE: PMI), one of the largest private mortgage insurance providers in the U.S., is expected to take another hit as the housing slump drags on. The California-based company is expected to have widened its net loss from $1.04 per share a year ago to $2.43 per share in the most recent quarter. Its shares are down 84.5% from a year ago, and have been trading recently near their 52-week low.

The middle of the week should bring many of the biggest anticipated earnings gainers. Analysts are looking for petroleum company Bill Barrett Corp. (NYSE: BBG), Texas-based Clayton Williams Energy Inc. (NASDAQ: CWEI), Chicago-based utility Integrys Energy Group Inc. (NYSE: TEG), and fertilizer producer Agrium Inc. (NYSE: AGU) all to report earnings that are 80% or higher than a year ago. Luxembourg-based steel producers ArcelorMittal (NYSE: MT) and Ternium SA (NYSE: TX) are expected to post profits of $4.01 per share (up 47.6% from a year ago) and $1.47 per share (up 45.6%), respectively. ArcelorMittal and Ternium beat estimates by 49.1% and 69.7% respectively in the previous quarter, and they also have buy recommendations, as well as each reached 52-week lows recently. Other anticipated big earnings gainers mid week include energy-related companies Petroleum Development Corp. (NASDAQ: PETD), Devon Energy Corp. (NYSE: DVN), Continental Resources Inc. (NYSE: CLR), Transocean Inc. (NYSE: RIG), CVR Energy Inc. (NYSE: CVI), Western Refining Inc. (NYSE: WNR), Williams Companies Inc. (NYSE: WMB), and Sunoco Inc. (NYSE: SUN), as well as amusement park operator Cedar Fair (NYSE: FUN), and online travel services provider Priceline.com Inc. (NASDAQ: PCLN).

Houston-based Frontier Oil Corp. (NYSE: FTO) and Baltimore-based utility Constellation Energy Group Inc. (NYSE: CEG) are expected to buck the trend of energy companies next week by reporting lower earnings of $0.75 per share (down 40.5%) and $0.88 per share (down 39.3%), respectively. Frontier was affected by Hurricane Ike back in September and Constellation is being acquired by a unit of Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (NYSE: BRK.A). Other expected earnings decliners mid week include Tennessee-based King Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NYSE: KG), Birmingham, Alabama-based Vulcan Materials Co. (NYSE: VMC), and specialty insurer Markel Corp. (NYSE: MKL), all of which fell short of estimates in the previous quarter. New York-based Ambac Financial Group Inc. (NYSE: ABK) and Atlanta-based CompuCredit Corp. (NASDAQ: CCRT) are expected to have swung to net losses of $0.50 per share and $0.37 per share, respectively. And cable TV operator Charter Communications Inc. (NASDAQ: CHTR) is expected to have narrowed its loss to $0.67 per share.

Late in the week, Houston-based Plains Exploration & Production Co. (NYSE: PXP) and Fluor Corp. (NYSE: FLR), are expected to post profits of $1.63 per share (up 72.4%) and $0.91 per share (up 44.0%), respectively. They've both beat estimates in recent quarters, and both get buy recommendations from the consensus of analysts. Bermuda-based Nordic American Tanker Shipping Ltd. (NYSE: NAT) is expected to have swung to a profit of $1.21 per share from a loss of $0.04 per share a year ago. Nordic's CEO provided an optimistic outlook in a recent letter to shareholders, but shares have still been trading a little higher than the 52-week low reached earlier this month.

San Jose, Calif.-based power company Calpine Corp. (NYSE: CPN) is expected post earnings down 95.1% from a year ago to $0.39 per share. Calpine emerged from bankruptcy early this year, but only recently settled litigation related to that bankruptcy. Calpine shares have fallen 32.8% in the past three months. Other anticipated big earnings decliners at the end of the week include Sprint Nextel Corp. (NYSE: S) and Trump Entertainment Resorts Inc. (NASDAQ: TRMP), which are expected to post earnings of $0.03 per share (down 87.0%) and $0.06 per share (down 71.4%), respectively. Sprint has beaten estimates in recent quarters, and both Sprint and Trump are trading near their 52-week lows. Cooper Tire & Rubber Co. (NYSE: CTB) is expected to report swinging to a loss of $0.91 per share, while Ford Motor Co. (NYSE: F) is expected to have deepened its loss to $0.93 per share, as it, like other Detroit automakers, continues to struggle with economic conditions.

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Tags: ABK, Agrium, AGU, Ambac, Anadarko, APC, ArcelorMittal, BBG, Berkshire Hathaway, Bill Barrett, Calpine, CCRT, Cedar Fair, CEG, Charter, CHTR, Cimarex, Clayton Williams, CLR, CompuCredit, Comstock, Cooper Tire, CPN, CRK, CTB, CVI, CVR, CWEI, Devon Energy, DVN, earnings, EOG, featured, FLR, Fluor, Ford, Forest Oil, Frontier Oil, FST, FTO, FUN, Goodyear, GT, Hurricane Ike, Innophos, Integrys, IPHS, Kaiser, KALU, KG, MA, Markel, MasterCard, MKL, MT, NAT, Nordic American Tanker, Oshkosh, OSK, PCLN, PETD, PMI, Priceline.com, PXD, PXP, RIG, Sprint, Sprint Nextel, SUN, Sunoco, TEG, Ternium, Transocean, TRMP, Trump, TX, VMC, Vulcan, WMB, WNR, XEC

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