Bush to GM: Drop dead

Will our 43rd president help the auto industry fend off the threat of bankruptcy? No. Over the weekend, General Motors Corp. (NYSE: GM) and Chrysler owner, Cerberus Capital, tried to get $10 billion of the $810 billion bank bailout bill to help finance their merger. Yesterday, Bush turned down the request. While Barack Obama supports help for the auto industry, John McCain does not. And since no reason was given for the turn down, we are free to draw our own conclusions for Bush's decision.

I think the case for not bailing out the auto industry has been severely weakened by the decision to bail out Wall Street. After all, if it's OK to give our money to the executives of big banks that got us into the financial crisis so they can pay themselves multi-million bonuses, there is no meaningful reason why everyone should not get a bailout.

I think that GM and Chrysler got themselves into their current mess by continuing to push gas guzzling, but highly profitable, minivans and SUVs rather than investing the profits in fuel efficient vehicles. And the industry has already gotten approval for $25 billion in loans to pay for fuel efficient vehicles that it should have built with profits earned during the boom years.

While it is a stretch to describe GM and Chrysler as financial services firms so they can qualify for some of that bank bailout money, it's not as far fetched as it would seem. In recent years, financial services accounted for 40% of all corporate profits. And as I posted in January 2006, a look at its financial statements made it clear that GM has turned itself into a bank that happened to sell cars: "for the first nine months of 2005, GM limited its $6 billion in vehicle operating losses due to the $2.2 billion it made financing those vehicles."

I would imagine that bankruptcy filings could be in the future of GM and Chrysler since they have probably exhausted all other forms of private financing. This could change, though, depending on tomorrow's election result. John McCain has made it clear that the $25 billion is enough of a government handout for the auto industry; however, Barack Obama wants government to do more to help the industry.

I think that the industry's best short-term hope is that plummeting gasoline prices bring people back to the showrooms for those popular gas guzzlers that fueled the auto industry profits earlier in the decade. Unfortunately, that would lead them to defer again the decision to build a new breed of electric-powered vehicle that does not ship hundreds of billions of dollars worth of our money, in the form of gasoline payments, to people who don't like us very much.

Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter. He has no financial interest in the securities mentioned.

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