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'High School Musical 3' avoids Jigsaw's Halloween trap

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Well, I have to admit, I thought Disney's (NYSE: DIS) High School Musical 3: Senior Year was going to drop quite a bit in rank this past weekend at domestic theaters even as early estimates from Boxofficemojo had indicated, putting Lions Gate Entertainment's (NYSE: LGF) Saw V in first place with $3.1 million for that day, while Senior Year dropped all the way down at spot number five with about $1.7 million. I was somewhat blown away by the expected decline. It was going to be Jigsaw's day, of course, but even so I didn't think Halloween would have that much of an effect on Disney's musical juggernaut.

But then, once the weekend estimates were actually in, the story changed. Senior Year was back on top! I guess moviegoers took a break from singing in the aisles to pay Jigsaw some respect on the dark holiday (maybe Lions Gate should put out a Saw musical in the future).

After that, it was back to the stories that populate the corridors of East High. Senior Year took in around $15 million, while the Saw sequel came in third with a haul of $10.1 million. Kevin Smith's Zack and Miri Make a Porno, distributed by the Weinstein Co. and featuring comedy superstar Seth Rogen, was second with $10.7 million. General Electric's (NYSE: GE) Universal captured the fourth slot with Changeling, earning $9.4 million. The Haunting of Molly Hartley, from Freestyle Releasing, was fifth, grossing $6 million.

These rankings could change since some of the estimates are close, but one thing is clear -- Disney's Musical franchise made a pretty successful leap to the big screen from its cable-channel incubator. The total gross for the project so far is pegged at slightly over $60 million. Will it reach the magical mark of $100 million? At this time, I'd have to say that the likelihood of such a box-office event is low. I just feel that Senior Year is going to start dropping off now that the opening excitement is beginning to wane.

And remember that DreamWorks Animation's (NYSE: DWA) Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa opens this Friday. It'll be distributed by Viacom (NYSE: VIA), so Disney should find itself staving off some stiff competition. I can't wait to hear what the final plans are for the fourth Musical movie. Will it be released on the big screen? From what I've read, fans might need to get used to some new cast members, although nothing is set in stone at this point. Another sequel could be worth a shot, so long as the budget is as low as possible.

Disclosure: I own Disney, GE; positions can change at any time.

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Last updated: July 04, 2009: 07:46 AM

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