Fertilizer firm Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan (NYSE: POT) was hit with a price-target cut from analysts at UBS today. The brokerage firm slashed its target price from $150 to $130, but reiterated its Buy rating on the stock. It's been a schizophrenic day for the company, brokerage-wise; the late-breaking note from UBS effectively dashed the upward momentum POT gained this morning when Dundee upgraded the North American fertilizer sector to Overweight.
In fact, "schizophrenic" more or less sums up analyst activity on POT during the past several weeks. Following its third-quarter earnings report on October 23, Potash Corp. received no fewer than five price-target cuts, along with three reiterations of bullish Buy or better ratings, plus an upgrade. To make matters even more interesting, this is the second price-target cut UBS has issued on POT in the past week -- the first cut, on October 29, was from $165 to $150.
According to Thomson Financial, the deluge of downward revisions might not be over yet. POT's average 12-month price target is $115.98. This consensus estimate represents a rather healthy premium of 36% to the stock's closing price last Friday. Considering that POT shares have plummeted about 41% year-to-date, it seems safe to say that expectations might be too high for this Canadian import.
However, option traders might beg to differ. During the past 10 days, traders on the International Securities Exchange (ISE) have bought to open more than two times more calls than puts on POT. The stock's 10-day call/put ratio of 2.29 ranks higher than 91% of other such readings taken in the past year, which suggests that investors on the ISE have rarely felt more bullish toward the stock.
In the November options series, there are two major accumulations of call open interest. The first is at the 110 strike, with 11,770 contracts in residence, while another significant build-up of 10,549 contracts can be found as far north as the 160 strike. With POT trading south of the $90 level, this configuration indicates that some option players are looking for a serious rebound in the shares during the next several weeks.
Meanwhile, the stock is floundering below former support from its 10-month and 20-month moving averages. These trendlines acted as support from August 2003 through the end of September 2008; now that POT is trading well below this duo, it may indicate that the stock's long-term uptrend has officially met its demise.
The equity's technical woes, combined with its vulnerability to further negative notes from analysts, indicates that there may be more losses in store for Potash Corp. during the short term. The heavy levels of optimism among option traders is also troubling, since an unwinding of this bullish sentiment could exacerbate the selling pressure POT's already feeling.
Elizabeth Harrow is an analyst and financial writer in the research department at Schaeffer's Investment Research. She is featured in the video series Schaeffer's Daily Q&A on SchaeffersResearch.com.










