The global aircraft business sure is complex. Big companies are both suppliers and customers of each other. There are only two major competitors -- but one new one, backed by the Chinese government -- threatens to alter the structure of the industry. And aircraft are so expensive that financing is the critical fuel that keeps the industry going. Meanwhile, the global economic slowdown threatens to cut demand for air travel and slice that capital flow.
This complexity comes to mind in analyzing a General Electric Co. (NYSE: GE) threat to Boeing (NYSE: BA) -- which it leveled by placing a $750 million order for five aircraft -- with an option to buy 20 more -- with China's Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China (CACC). CACC was formed earlier this year through the merger of China's two state aircraft makers, AVIC I and AVIC. And the expansion does not stop there -- today China announced plans to acquire a foreign general aviation aircraft maker to "shore up its technology capabilities."
GE's CACC buy is hurting one of GE's biggest customers -- that's because GE Aviation sells billions worth of engines to Boeing. And GE's aircraft financing unit -- GE Capital Aviation Services -- is in competition with American International Group's (NYSE: AIG) aircraft financing unit, International Lease Finance Corp. -- which is one of Boeing's biggest customers.
GE's move raises questions for Boeing: Although CACC now focuses on regional aircraft, could it become a significant global competitor? If so, on what basis will CACC compete? Can CACC offer high quality aircraft at much lower prices? Is CACC able to provide maintenance and spare parts for its aircraft on a timely basis? How should Boeing alter its competitive strategy to protect its aircraft industry market share? Should Boeing retaliate against GE by buying aircraft engines from a GE competitor?
To help answer these questions, it's worth remembering that GE is both a supplier and customer of CACC -- the same relationships it has with Boeing -- though on a much smaller scale. But Boeing probably perceives GE's move as helping to create a big new competitor. Meanwhile, GE may see itself as trying to strengthen a customer of its Aviation and Finance units.
If the Chinese government is willing to support CACC with the substantial amount of capital it needs to get off the ground, then GE's decision may make sense. But China is entering a recession. That's right -- after posting 10% to 11% annual economic growth according to Chinese government statistics, a new survey of Chinese manufacturing activity -- the CLSA China Manufacturers Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) -- showed that China's factory activity contracted sharply during October, with the index falling to its lowest level since the surveys began in June 2004.
Does this slowdown affect CACC and GE? It could hurt both. Although CACC already has 100 orders for the ARJ21 jet which it plans to deliver in the third quarter of 2009, it is unclear how much capital it needs from the Chinese government. And if China indeed enters a recession, it may need to use its dwindling capital elsewhere. This could leave GE in the awkward position of providing financing to CACC during a time when its own financial situation is less than robust.
Meanwhile, the knife GE stuck in Boeing's back may spur Boeing to retaliate by giving more of its aircraft engine business to a GE competitor. As global growth slows, the survivors will be those who have the best relationships with their customers. I question whether the benefits to GE of helping its customer and Boeing competitor, CACC, exceed the damage GE's move may have caused in its relationship with Boeing.
Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter











Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
11-05-2008 @ 7:36AM
Jon said...
What is the nature of the sale? GE does not operate an airline. GE does finance aircraft. Could this just be a purchase/leaseback? which is just another form of finance.
11-04-2008 @ 11:33AM
warty said...
Boeing sells aircraft to airlines and GE sells engines to airlines.
Boeing and Airbus aircraft provide compatibility to all engine makers for a particular aircraft.
GE purchases aircraft from all major suppliers for their aircraft leasing business.
11-04-2008 @ 1:02PM
Chris K. said...
Which 70-95 seat Boeing aircraft do you believe GECAS should have bought instead? Oh...right...Boeing doesn't have a product in that size.
11-04-2008 @ 1:55PM
Rick Kennedy said...
Basic facts to set the record straight:
For starters, GE is Boeing's #1 engine supplier, and most Boeing aircraft operating in China are powered by engines from GE and CFM International (50/50 joint comapny of GE and Snecma).
The Chinese ARJ21 is a regional jet -- it DOES NOT compete with Boeing. Boeing does not produce a regional jet aircraft in the 70 to 90 passenger range. The ARJ21 competes against the EMBRAER (Brazil) and Bombardier (Canada) family of regional aircraft, and GE provides engines for both of these companies as well. GE is also a major engine supplier to Airbus Industrie.
GE Aviation invests about $1 billion in R&D to develop new technology for future engines and to improve engines already operating in the field. Boeing is a great beneficiary of this continual investment.
Yes, the global aircraft business sure is complex, but to suggest that GE is stabbing Boeing in the back is foolish.
11-10-2008 @ 11:23PM
Neolight said...
This article is trying to make something out of next-to-nothing-- so GE bought airplanes of a size for which Boeing has no competing aircraft? I think the story is that in this environment, with its stock plunging, that GE is buying any aircraft at all!
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