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Earnings preview: Will Disney resist the recession?

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Get ready, Mouse fans. Disney (NYSE: DIS) will be letting Wall Street know this Thursday if its fourth quarter was a good one or not. A lot of eyes will be on the company. Shareholders will want to know the outlook for the theme parks and how the advertising marketplace is treating the company's media holdings. So far, things haven't been too bad at Disney, but many on Wall Street are expecting the recession is to catch up to the company. I expect this myself. So I'll be perusing the conference-call transcript for such items as guest spending at the parks and the quality of the scatter advertising market at ABC. I'll also be keeping my eye out for comments about the consumer-products segment and the company's investments in the video-game division. Disney is spending a lot on the latter, and I think shareholders need to have an idea of how the portfolio of games to be released during the holiday season is expected to perform. In terms of the former, I want to know if the Disney brand is working its magic in the retail channels.

In terms of the bottom line, Earnings.com says that income should be about $0.49 per share. That would represent growth of roughly 17%. I'd be happy with that double-digit number. And I'm pretty sure that estimates will be beat by a penny or two, knowing the company's reputation. But as a shareholder, I tend to be more interested in the cash-flow statement. I like to see how much free cash has been generated, and how the company is using it. In fact, we'll get the cash-flow number for the last twelve months this Thursday. I'll want to see how many shares have been repurchased, and I'll be interested in attempting to gauge what the next dividend increase is likely to be. Disney likes to take shares back as a way of rewarding shareholders, but management really needs to do a better job with the dividend, as I think it could be higher. I would expect that Disney will deliver a decent cash-flow statement.

And how are the Disney Channel franchises faring? Is Hannah Montana wearing out her welcome? Somehow, I don't think that will be the case; someday soon, sure, but not just now. And will the next High School Musical movie be released on the big screen with a new cast? I would appreciate one of the analysts out there inquiring about that. The whole Disney-Channel-incubator thing has been a powerful force for both the company and the brand, and I'm sure CEO Bob Iger will be crowing about it. But I'd love to know what his spreadsheets are saying about the longevity at this point for the current franchises. Will Disney know when it's time to sell out of one fad and invest in another? For that matter, how are the Jonas Brothers doing? We do hear about them, but they don't have the same iconic value of a Miley Cyrus, do they? They don't to me, at least, but maybe I'm just out of the loop. Iger should explain what plans the company has to turn them into the next truly big thing.

Disney is holding its own against competitors such as Time Warner (NYSE: TWX), Viacom (NYSE: VIA), CBS (NYSE: CBS), Sony (NYSE: SNE), General Electric's (NYSE: GE) NBC Universal, and News Corp. (NYSE: NWS). I have to hope that Iger knows what's best for the company as the recession deepens. He'll have to be careful when allocating capital and deciding which concepts should be funded.

As for setting up an earnings trade, it's not on my agenda. I already own a long-term position in Disney (one that I'm getting a little impatient with, by the way, considering that the stock hasn't been too exciting for those who have owned for a decade or so like I have), and I think trading the shares ahead of the Q4 numbers might be risky (a pullback after earnings, however, might offer an opportunity).

Disclosure: I own Disney, GE; positions can change at any time.

Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA-17.2410,433.71
NASDAQ0.002,169.18
S&P 5000.001,105.65

Last updated: November 25, 2009: 09:39 AM

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