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Look for Obama to strike grand bargain with U.S. auto manufacturers

There are two ways one can look at the current state of the U.S. auto industry: 1) things are pretty bad or 2) the auto sector has no where to go but up.

With cash dwindling, General Motors' and Ford's shares appear to be making a run at inclusion in the penny stock category.

Deutsche Bank (NYSE: DB) Monday did not offer research to reverse that prediction: in a research note it downgraded GM to Sell from Hold, with a target of $0 (that's correct: zero dollars), commenting that even if the company avoids a bankruptcy, it will face a bankruptcy-like future, marketwatch.com reported Monday.

A U.S. Government rescue of GM, Ford and Chrysler is likely in the early weeks of the Obama Administration, if it isn't passed by the current Congress before then, "probably on the order of $25-30 billion in loans and investments," so says economist David H. Wang, with even more assistance beyond that, if the formerly 'Big Three' automakers agree to certain performance terms. General Motors Corporation (NYSE: GM) shares plunged 96 cents to $3.40, while Ford Motor Company (NYSE: F) shares fell 8 cents to $1.94 in Monday afternoon trading.

Obama to seek next-gen vehicle


Further, Wang said President-elect Obama will likely try to solve a portion of the U.S.'s energy problem and the auto sector's woes in one program.


"Look for Obama to forge a grand bargain with the automakers: we'll supply additional loans and investment capital if the industry can develop a next-generation, alternate fuel or alternate propulsion car, something that specifically reduces U.S. dependence on oil," Wang said. "But it has to be a widely marketable, practical vehicle, something that is a serious alternative to gasoline and diesel."

What energy form that next-gen vehicle will feature -- battery, fuel cell, etc. -- Wang doesn't know, but he does see the Obama Administration committing an additional $25-50 billion for a viable next-gen car plan, and other corporate operational reforms.

Obama Administration officials are also likely to push for clauses that require the U.S. automakers to use U.S.-based parts and materials suppliers as much as possible, in order to further stimulate economic activity in the nation, he said.

Auto Sector / Economic Analysis: Economist Wang also argued that most of each company's senior management and board of directors should be replaced, and the government's equity stake in each company should be substantial, but not so punitive that it hinders the attraction of additional private investors. Further, given the wide employment and economic implications of a non-rescue, the option of not intervening is a non-starter, he said, and that's the view from here, as well.

Few in economics or government circles a decade ago could have predicted the auto sector's current predicament, but if the 1979 Chrysler rescue is any indicator, the U.S. Government and taxpayers could end up making money on the deal.
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Last updated: November 26, 2009: 03:43 AM

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